Finals week 2 predictions

Tough week last week, and not much on offer this week. But let’s hope we get on a winner on Friday night!

Hawthorn ($1.27) vs Adelaide Crows ($3.94)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +28.4 points +30.3 points
Home likelihood 78.4% 80.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.07
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Sydney Swans ($1.54) vs North Melbourne ($2.57)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +25.7 points +14.2 points
Home likelihood 76.3% 64.8%
Bet on home team $0.33 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00
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Finals Week 1 predictions

A few interesting bets this week!

I should note that it is possible that North Melbourne and Fremantle’s excessive resting of players last week has affected their ratings.

Best of luck to everyone!

West Coast Eagles ($2.04) vs Hawthorn ($1.83)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +6.9 points -0.8 points
Home likelihood 57.3% 49.2%
Bet on home team $0.16 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Fremantle ($1.33) vs Sydney Swans ($3.49)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -3.1 points +11.1 points
Home likelihood 46.3% 61.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.35 $0.14

Western Bulldogs ($1.99) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.87)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +2.3 points +3.8 points
Home likelihood 52.2% 54.0%
Bet on home team $0.04 $0.08
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Richmond ($1.61) vs North Melbourne ($2.40)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +24.3 points +21.2 points
Home likelihood 75.1% 72.7%
Bet on home team $0.34 $0.28
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Home and Away season results

With just 9 finals to see out the 2015 season, I thought I’d quickly post the profit chart for this season

Betting Performance

We tipped 140 correct with the player model, and 137 with the team model. That gives us more tips than the experts in the Herald Sun (by one tip), and a couple less than the two leaders in The Age expert tips (curse you Richo and Cherney).

The profits throughout the year are shown in the following plot.

profits_round23We finished with a player model profit of $3.48 on a $1 pot from a total investment of $24.75, which is a return on investment of 14%, and a return on capital of 348%. The team model did almost as well, making a profit of $2.69 on a $1 pot from a total investment of $24.55, which is a return on investment of 11% and a return on capital of 269%.

Let’s hope we can make a little more during the finals!

Round 23 predictions

Here we are at the final home and away round of 2015. Here is a profit summary of the season so far. Hopefully we can increase our profits this round and in the finals.

profits_round22

As expected, there are some big discrepancies between the team and player model in the Richmond vs North Melbourne and Port Adelaide vs Fremantle games because of so many players being rested.

Here are the predictions for the final home and away round of 2015!

Collingwood ($1.25) vs Essendon ($3.85)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +28.1 points +29.0 points
Home likelihood 78.3% 78.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Port Adelaide ($1.14) vs Fremantle ($6.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +8.7 points +46.8 points
Home likelihood 58.9% 89.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.18
Bet on away team $0.29 $0.00

Richmond ($1.09) vs North Melbourne ($8.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +8.5 points +41.8 points
Home likelihood 58.7% 87.7%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.33 $0.00

Hawthorn ($1.01) vs Carlton ($15.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +80.1 points +82.7 points
Home likelihood 98.3% 98.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Geelong Cats ($2.05) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.80)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -11.9 points -8.7 points
Home likelihood 37.3% 40.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.16 $0.10

Sydney Swans ($1.03) vs Gold Coast Suns ($12.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +64.2 points +68.8 points
Home likelihood 95.8% 96.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Melbourne ($2.60) vs GWS Giants ($1.50)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -9.7 points -3.9 points
Home likelihood 39.7% 45.9%
Bet on home team $0.02 $0.12
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

West Coast Eagles ($1.04) vs St Kilda ($11.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +56.5 points +50.7 points
Home likelihood 93.6% 92.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($4.85) vs Western Bulldogs ($1.19)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -32.6 points -20.7 points
Home likelihood 18.7% 28.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.10
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

 

Round 22 predictions

Best of luck. Hopefully we see a few big wins before the home and away season finishes in a few weeks.

Geelong Cats ($1.38) vs Collingwood ($3.16)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +8.1 points +3.1 points
Home likelihood 58.4% 53.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.15 $0.22

GWS Giants ($1.21) vs Carlton ($4.68)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +21.5 points +24.5 points
Home likelihood 72.5% 75.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.08 $0.04

Hawthorn ($1.01) vs Brisbane Lions ($15.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +77.8 points +72.2 points
Home likelihood 98.2% 97.6%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($1.65) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.31)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +0.7 points +9.9 points
Home likelihood 50.3% 60.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.11 $0.00

Essendon ($6.96) vs Richmond ($1.12)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -46.2 points -40.9 points
Home likelihood 10.9% 13.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($3.75) vs Port Adelaide ($1.29)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -22.1 points -25.0 points
Home likelihood 27.3% 24.7%
Bet on home team $0.01 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Adelaide Crows ($2.30) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.66)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -0.8 points +6.7 points
Home likelihood 49.1% 57.1%
Bet on home team $0.10 $0.24
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Fremantle ($1.11) vs Melbourne ($7.08)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +59.6 points +63.6 points
Home likelihood 94.5% 96.0%
Bet on home team $0.46 $0.61
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

St Kilda ($4.56) vs Sydney Swans ($1.22)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -13.5 points -1.9 points
Home likelihood 35.6% 47.8%
Bet on home team $0.17 $0.33
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Round 21 predictions

We made back some of the previous week’s losses last round, and still sit comfortably at about $2.60 profit for the year. Let’s hope for another good round this weekend!

Hawthorn ($1.07) vs Port Adelaide ($10.56)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +48.9 points +51.0 points
Home likelihood 91.1% 92.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Collingwood ($2.91) vs Richmond ($1.46)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -9.8 points -12.8 points
Home likelihood 39.7% 35.3%
Bet on home team $0.08 $0.01
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

GWS Giants ($2.83) vs Sydney Swans ($1.48)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -9.9 points -4.6 points
Home likelihood 39.7% 45.0%
Bet on home team $0.07 $0.15
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($1.47) vs Essendon ($2.86)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +15.5 points +3.9 points
Home likelihood 66.5% 54.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.17

Adelaide Crows ($1.09) vs Brisbane Lions ($8.73)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +56.1 points +47.5 points
Home likelihood 93.5% 90.2%
Bet on home team $0.24 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

St Kilda ($3.78) vs Geelong Cats ($1.31)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -13.0 points -14.2 points
Home likelihood 36.2% 34.0%
Bet on home team $0.13 $0.10
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($1.66) vs Fremantle ($2.35)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +11.1 points +9.2 points
Home likelihood 61.5% 59.5%
Bet on home team $0.03 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

West Coast Eagles ($1.29) vs Western Bulldogs ($3.90)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +22.5 points +11.0 points
Home likelihood 73.6% 61.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.01 $0.18

Carlton ($3.23) vs Melbourne ($1.39)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -2.8 points -3.2 points
Home likelihood 46.7% 46.5%
Bet on home team $0.23 $0.23
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Round 20 predictions

Sydney Swans ($1.41) vs Collingwood ($3.01)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +19.2 points +21.1 points
Home likelihood 70.0% 72.6%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.06
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Essendon ($4.50) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.23)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -19.2 points -16.4 points
Home likelihood 29.9% 31.8%
Bet on home team $0.10 $0.12
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($1.21) vs St Kilda ($4.79)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +25.7 points +28.1 points
Home likelihood 76.5% 78.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.03 $0.01

Port Adelaide ($1.31) vs GWS Giants ($3.62)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +24.5 points +30.0 points
Home likelihood 75.3% 79.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.15
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Geelong Cats ($4.40) vs Hawthorn ($1.23)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -35.2 points -32.5 points
Home likelihood 17.3% 19.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.08 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($1.80) vs Carlton ($2.07)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +11.4 points +17.4 points
Home likelihood 61.8% 68.2%
Bet on home team $0.14 $0.29
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Richmond ($1.20) vs Gold Coast Suns ($4.93)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +42.9 points +47.8 points
Home likelihood 87.8% 90.4%
Bet on home team $0.25 $0.41
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Fremantle ($1.61) vs West Coast Eagles ($2.40)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -9.5 points +7.7 points
Home likelihood 39.9% 58.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.32 $0.01

Western Bulldogs ($1.21) vs Melbourne ($4.79)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +43.5 points +36.5 points
Home likelihood 88.0% 85.0%
Bet on home team $0.30 $0.12
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00