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Our new platform

To all the people who have followed AFLpredictions/The Aussie Rules Almanac over the past three years: We have launched our Facebook page! Come across and “Like” us at

https://www.facebook.com/thefootballalmanac

We have also changed the method of delivery of the predictions. To get our predictions ahead of each weekend’s games, please subscribe by clicking the shop icons on the Facebook page.

My hope is that by running it with an emailed spreadsheet and subscription fee, you will get both more accurate predictions (because I can dedicate more time to it) and the predictions will be more flexible, so you can enter the odds and line you get with your preferred bookmaker and the bet sizes will update automatically.

So thanks to everyone who has followed thus far, I hope you join us for the upcoming 2016 season!

2016 season simulations

We’re back in 2016 as The Aussie Rules Almanac! To kick off this season, we’ve run a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 Home and Away season to see where each team will probably finish. The simulations use the 2016 fixture and a predicted best 22 to gauge team strength.

Club Minor
Premiership
Top
Four
Top
Eight
Bottom
Four
Wooden
Spoon
Hawthorn 53% 89% 99% 0% 0%
West Coast Eagles 12% 56% 87% 0% 0%
Geelong Cats 5% 42% 81% 0% 0%
Sydney Swans 5% 38% 80% 0% 0%
Port Adelaide 5% 31% 74% 0% 0%
Western Bulldogs 4% 31% 71% 0% 0%
Fremantle 4% 30% 72% 0% 0%
North Melbourne 3% 30% 71% 0% 0%
Richmond 2% 29% 69% 0% 0%
Collingwood 1% 16% 51% 2% 0%
St Kilda 0% 1% 11% 20% 1%
GWS Giants 0% 0% 7% 30% 1%
Gold Coast Suns 0% 0% 6% 28% 1%
Adelaide Crows 0% 0% 9% 31% 2%
Brisbane Lions 0% 0% 4% 35% 3%
Melbourne 0% 0% 1% 68% 12%
Carlton 0% 0% 0% 87% 33%
Essendon 0% 0% 0% 91% 43%

No points for predicting the top two – clearly the best two teams in 2015, but Geelong sliding into third? They do have the easiest draw of any genuine competitor for the top 8 this year, and have added one of the best players in the game to their midfield. This could see Fremantle sliding out of the four after the minor premiership in 2015.

With a full strength line up, Essendon were a 6% chance of making the top 8 and just a 5% chance of taking the spoon. However they’re going to struggle to post any wins this season, and are the favourites to take the wooden spoon at 43%, 10% clear of Carlton. With the suspensions, Carlton’s chances of taking the spoon dropped from 50% to 33%, and Melbourne’s chances dropped from 22% to 12%.

2015 in review

2015 was another successful year at AFLpredictions, marking our third consecutive year of profit since starting publication in 2013. This was the first year that player information and additional statistics (beyond points scored) were included in the model. The result was the most successful year to date, with a return of $3.15 on an initial investment of $1 (assuming full Kelly betting).

To illustrate the model’s performance, take for example someone investing $1000 and adopting quarter Kelly betting (that is, only betting the suggested fraction of a quarter of your total bank – which is suggested to reduce volatility). They would have been down $315 after the first two games of Round 6 (and back in profit by the end of the round), then in profit by $937 after Hawthorn beat Sydney in Round 16, and would have finished the year with a total profit of $788.

The fast turnaround on bets in the AFL means that when betting with $1000 at quarter Kelly, the total value of all bets laid in 2015 would have been $6390, giving a return on total investment of 12.3%. I would have liked to compare this number with the growth of the ASX 200, but an investment with AFLpredictions would have embarrassed the traders this year.

The evolution of the profit AFLpredictions turned in the 2015 season (based on an investment of $1 with full Kelly betting).

The evolution of the profit AFLpredictions turned in the 2015 season (based on an investment of $1 with full Kelly betting).

Biggest win: Brisbane Lions ($4.67) over Port Adelaide in Round 7. Profit of $0.73 on $1 ($183 if betting $1000 at quarter Kelly).

Biggest loss: Gold Coast over West Coast (suggested bet of $0.53 on West Coast). The game was a draw. Interestingly, we were also hurt by the other draw of 2015, where we had suggested a bet on St Kilda (at $3.78) over Geelong in Round 21.

We tipped 145 games correctly this year, which puts us third amongst The Age’s expert footy tipsters, and we finished the Home and Away season ahead of all the Herald Sun’s expert footy tipsters (I can’t find their leaderboard after the finals, so let me know if anyone comes across it).

Be sure to follow us next season for more profitable AFL predictions!

Grand Final prediction

Here it is, the last bet of the year! And it’s an interesting one. The model loves the Hawks this weekend, so hopefully they can deliver our last win for the season.

Good luck and thanks for following AFLpredictions this season!

Hawthorn ($1.59) vs West Coast Eagles ($2.50)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +20.0 points +20.5 points
Home likelihood 70.8% 71.8%
Bet on home team $0.21 $0.24
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Finals week 3 predictions

No player model bets this week. Best of luck if you are using the team model!

Fremantle ($2.30) vs Hawthorn ($1.66)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -16.6 points -5.9 points
Home likelihood 32.6% 43.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.18 $0.00

West Coast Eagles ($1.20) vs North Melbourne ($4.88)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +36.5 points +32.9 points
Home likelihood 84.0% 82.4%
Bet on home team $0.04 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00