Predictions

Round 3 Predictions

Round 2 didn’t deliver too many surprises, and we broke about even thanks to St. Kilda managing to get over the top of GWS. Unfortunately a few of the teams at longer odds, Brisbane and Melbourne couldn’t get close, while Essendon probably should have held on on Friday night. We had a tough round with the line bets, so hopefully we can bounce back this round!

Here are the profits for the first two rounds of 2014.
h2h_profit

line_profits

 

As mentioned above, we had a bit of a shocker with line bets last week (Brisbane, for the second week in a row, hurt us by just a couple of points). We’ve had a fantastic start to the season with the head-to-head bets, though!

This week has a few interesting games, which always means a chance to get one up on the bookies! Odds are taken from here.

Tips, chances and margins (predicted winners – NOT bets – in bold)

Hawthorn ($1.813) (64%) vs Fremantle ($2.110) (36%)
Predicted margin: 13.9. Home ground advantage: 13.0

Bulldogs ($3.560) (39%) vs Richmond ($1.345) (61%)
Predicted margin: -9.1. Home ground advantage: 8.6

Adelaide ($2.340) (51%) vs Sydney ($1.676) (49%)
Predicted margin: 1.5. Home ground advantage: 5.0

Gold Coast ($1.676) (55%) vs Brisbane ($2.340) (45%)
Predicted margin: 6.1. Home ground advantage: 8.3

West Coast ($1.040) (77%) vs St Kilda ($15.000) (23%)
Predicted margin: 28.0. Home ground advantage: 13.6

Collingwood ($2.370) (44%) vs Geelong ($1.658) (56%)
Predicted margin: -4.7. Home ground advantage: 8.2

Greater Western Sydney ($1.344) (66%) vs Melbourne ($3.570) (34%)
Predicted margin: 15.6. Home ground advantage: 6.4

Kangaroos ($2.130) (60%) vs Port Adelaide ($1.800) (40%)
Predicted margin: 10.6. Home ground advantage: 10.9

Essendon ($1.571) (55%) vs Carlton ($2.580) (45%)
Predicted margin: 6.0. Home ground advantage: 2.4

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 19.0% of pot on Hawthorn at $1.813
Bet 16.0% of pot on the Bulldogs at $3.560
Bet 14.0% of pot on Adelaide at $2.340
Bet 25.0% of pot on the Kangaroos at $2.130

 

Line Bets (all bets listed – home line bets more profitable than away bets)

Line bet 19.0% of pot on Hawthorn to win by more than 4.5 points at $1.952
Line bet 22.0% of pot on Bulldogs to lose by less than 20.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 15.0% of pot on Adelaide to lose by less than 6.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 64.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 63.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Collingwood to lose by less than 8.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Melbourne to lose by less than 21.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 30.0% of pot on Kangaroos to lose by less than 4.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 7.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 12.5 points or win at $1.952

Round 2 Predictions

All right, first round down! And there’s no complaining about some of the results. We are off to a flying start with 92% return on investment for round 1 for head to head bets, and 125% return on capital. Line bets broke about even (2% return on investment) – unfortunately Brisbane fell apart against Hawthorn in the last quarter and were pipped at the line by half a point! Not to worry – here are the tips and bets for this round!

Tips, chances and margins (predicted winners – NOT bets – in bold)
Richmond ($1.7) (60%) vs Carlton ($2.3) (40%)
Predicted margin: 10.3. Home ground advantage: 5.1

Essendon ($3.0) (38%) vs Hawthorn ($1.4) (62%)
Predicted margin: -10.6. Home ground advantage: 6.9

St Kilda ($1.9) (79%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($2.0) (21%)
Predicted margin: 30.2. Home ground advantage: 11.8

Port Adelaide ($1.7) (54%) vs Adelaide ($2.3) (46%)
Predicted margin: 4.6. Home ground advantage: 3.0

Fremantle ($1.1) (85%) vs Gold Coast ($9.2) (15%)
Predicted margin: 39.1. Home ground advantage: 13.7 (2.9, 6.8, 4.0)

Sydney ($1.5) (59%) vs Collingwood ($2.9) (41%)
Predicted margin: 9.4. Home ground advantage: 6.4

Brisbane ($4.0) (39%) vs Geelong ($1.3) (61%)
Predicted margin: -9.0. Home ground advantage: 11.1

Melbourne ($7.0) (38%) vs West Coast ($1.1) (62%)
Predicted margin: -10.9. Home ground advantage: 13.4

Bulldogs ($3.4) (33%) vs Kangaroos ($1.4) (67%)
Predicted margin: -15.5. Home ground advantage: 3.0

 

Head-to-Head Bets
Bet 7.0% of pot on Essendon at 3.010
Bet 56.0% of pot on St Kilda at 1.917
Bet 19.0% of pot on Brisbane at 3.970
Bet 27.0% of pot on Melbourne at 7.040
Bet 5.0% of pot on Bulldogs at 3.350

 

Line Bets
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Richmond at 1.952
Line bet 10.0% of pot on Essendon at $2.02
Line bet 30.0% of pot on Brisbane at $1.917
Line bet 56.0% of pot on Melbourne at $1.952

Round 1 – Part 2

After a brilliant start to the year (doubling our money already!) thanks to a GWS upset (that we suggested a bet on), our algorithm disagrees with the bookies again for much of the remainder of the round. Maybe they’re placing too much emphasis on pre-season form or new coaches (ahem, Paul Roos). Or perhaps injuries or some other factors that we don’t take into account are affecting the odds. The discrepancies lead to large bets on St. Kilda, who should be favourites against Melbourne, and the Kangaroos, who should be stronger favourites against Essendon. Again, we use odds from here (from 3 days prior to the first game of the week).

Tips, chances and margins (predicted winners – NOT bets – in bold)
Geelong (68%) to win by 18 points against Adelaide (32%).
Kangaroos (69%) to win by 19 points against Essendon (31%).
Hawthorn (77%) to win by 28 points against Brisbane (23%).
St. Kilda (78%) to win by 29 points against Melbourne (22%).
West Coast (65%) to win by 15 points against Bulldogs (35%).

Head-to-head Bets
Bet 22.5% of pot on the Kangaroos at $1.667
Bet 63.3% of pot on St. Kilda at $2.47

Line Bets
Bet 21.5% of pot on the Kangaroos to win by more than 7.5 points
Bet 34.4% of pot on Brisbane to win/lose by less than 46.5 points
Bet 69.5% of pot on St. Kilda to win/lose by less than 10.5 points
Bet 10.7% of pot on the Bulldogs to win/lose by less than 22.5 points

Kicking off 2014 bets – Round 1

Welcome to the 2014 AFL premiership season of betting at AFLpredictions! While I’m still ironing a few things out in the latest iteration of the algorithm, here are the predictions for the first half of the first round. Odds are taken from here. The last few years we have had some good wins in the first round, so we’re looking for good showings from Collingwood and Greater Western Sydney this week!

Tips, chances and margins (predicted winners – NOT bets – in bold)
Collingwood (52%) to win by 2 points against Fremantle (47%).
Greater Western Sydney (16%) to lose by 37 points against Sydney (83%).
Gold Coast (40%) to lose by 8 points against Richmond (59%).
Carlton (60%) to win by 11 points against Port Adelaide (39%).

Head-to-head Bets
Bet 12.6% of pot on the Collingwood at $2.21
Bet 8.9% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $12.50

Line Bets
Bet 24.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney to win/lose by less than 48.5 at $1.952
Bet 13.6% of pot on Collingwood to win/lose by less than 5.5 at $1.952

 

 

Grand Final Predictions

After another bet-less week last round, I’m happy to say we have a suggested punt for the Grand Final to finish our year!

GF Prediction:

Hawthorn (76%) 1.649 vs Fremantle (24%) 2.39   Predicted margin: 25

Suggested bets:
Bet $0.38 on Hawthorn

Despite the remarkably good historical performance of interstate teams in the Grand Final, we are backing Hawthorn in for this game. A lot of commentators are jumping on Freo, Hawthorn have an extra day’s rest, much more M.C.G. experience and don’t have to travel. So the model has them as great value at $1.649!

Tune in next week for a season review of our model’s performance.

Finals Week 3 Predictions

A quiet week last week, with no bets, is followed by another this week.

Predictions:

Hawthorn (68%) 1.435 vs Geelong (32%) 3.05 Predicted margin: 16
Fremantle (69%) 1.308 vs Sydney (31%) 3.85 Predicted margin: 18

Suggested bets:
None

Not much to say, with no suggested bets. We have a suggested away team bet of $0.06 on Sydney, but historically, our model overpredicts the away team’s chances of winning games.

Finals Week 2 Predictions

Some big upsets last week, but unfortunately we favoured they were all away teams, so we had no chance of getting any of them! (As we historically don’t post profits from away teams, so don’t bet on them). This week’s predictions are:

Predictions:

Geelong (83%) 1.241 vs Port Adelaide (17%) 4.58 Predicted margin: 35
Sydney (70%) 1.357 vs Carlton (30%) 3.48 Predicted margin: 19

Suggested bets:

And we have no bets this week!