Month: February 2016

2016 season simulations

We’re back in 2016 as The Aussie Rules Almanac! To kick off this season, we’ve run a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 Home and Away season to see where each team will probably finish. The simulations use the 2016 fixture and a predicted best 22 to gauge team strength.

Club Minor
Premiership
Top
Four
Top
Eight
Bottom
Four
Wooden
Spoon
Hawthorn 53% 89% 99% 0% 0%
West Coast Eagles 12% 56% 87% 0% 0%
Geelong Cats 5% 42% 81% 0% 0%
Sydney Swans 5% 38% 80% 0% 0%
Port Adelaide 5% 31% 74% 0% 0%
Western Bulldogs 4% 31% 71% 0% 0%
Fremantle 4% 30% 72% 0% 0%
North Melbourne 3% 30% 71% 0% 0%
Richmond 2% 29% 69% 0% 0%
Collingwood 1% 16% 51% 2% 0%
St Kilda 0% 1% 11% 20% 1%
GWS Giants 0% 0% 7% 30% 1%
Gold Coast Suns 0% 0% 6% 28% 1%
Adelaide Crows 0% 0% 9% 31% 2%
Brisbane Lions 0% 0% 4% 35% 3%
Melbourne 0% 0% 1% 68% 12%
Carlton 0% 0% 0% 87% 33%
Essendon 0% 0% 0% 91% 43%

No points for predicting the top two – clearly the best two teams in 2015, but Geelong sliding into third? They do have the easiest draw of any genuine competitor for the top 8 this year, and have added one of the best players in the game to their midfield. This could see Fremantle sliding out of the four after the minor premiership in 2015.

With a full strength line up, Essendon were a 6% chance of making the top 8 and just a 5% chance of taking the spoon. However they’re going to struggle to post any wins this season, and are the favourites to take the wooden spoon at 43%, 10% clear of Carlton. With the suspensions, Carlton’s chances of taking the spoon dropped from 50% to 33%, and Melbourne’s chances dropped from 22% to 12%.

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