Month: August 2015

Round 22 predictions

Best of luck. Hopefully we see a few big wins before the home and away season finishes in a few weeks.

Geelong Cats ($1.38) vs Collingwood ($3.16)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +8.1 points +3.1 points
Home likelihood 58.4% 53.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.15 $0.22

GWS Giants ($1.21) vs Carlton ($4.68)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +21.5 points +24.5 points
Home likelihood 72.5% 75.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.08 $0.04

Hawthorn ($1.01) vs Brisbane Lions ($15.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +77.8 points +72.2 points
Home likelihood 98.2% 97.6%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($1.65) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.31)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +0.7 points +9.9 points
Home likelihood 50.3% 60.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.11 $0.00

Essendon ($6.96) vs Richmond ($1.12)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -46.2 points -40.9 points
Home likelihood 10.9% 13.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($3.75) vs Port Adelaide ($1.29)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -22.1 points -25.0 points
Home likelihood 27.3% 24.7%
Bet on home team $0.01 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Adelaide Crows ($2.30) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.66)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -0.8 points +6.7 points
Home likelihood 49.1% 57.1%
Bet on home team $0.10 $0.24
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Fremantle ($1.11) vs Melbourne ($7.08)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +59.6 points +63.6 points
Home likelihood 94.5% 96.0%
Bet on home team $0.46 $0.61
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

St Kilda ($4.56) vs Sydney Swans ($1.22)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -13.5 points -1.9 points
Home likelihood 35.6% 47.8%
Bet on home team $0.17 $0.33
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00
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Round 21 predictions

We made back some of the previous week’s losses last round, and still sit comfortably at about $2.60 profit for the year. Let’s hope for another good round this weekend!

Hawthorn ($1.07) vs Port Adelaide ($10.56)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +48.9 points +51.0 points
Home likelihood 91.1% 92.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Collingwood ($2.91) vs Richmond ($1.46)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -9.8 points -12.8 points
Home likelihood 39.7% 35.3%
Bet on home team $0.08 $0.01
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

GWS Giants ($2.83) vs Sydney Swans ($1.48)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -9.9 points -4.6 points
Home likelihood 39.7% 45.0%
Bet on home team $0.07 $0.15
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($1.47) vs Essendon ($2.86)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +15.5 points +3.9 points
Home likelihood 66.5% 54.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.17

Adelaide Crows ($1.09) vs Brisbane Lions ($8.73)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +56.1 points +47.5 points
Home likelihood 93.5% 90.2%
Bet on home team $0.24 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

St Kilda ($3.78) vs Geelong Cats ($1.31)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -13.0 points -14.2 points
Home likelihood 36.2% 34.0%
Bet on home team $0.13 $0.10
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($1.66) vs Fremantle ($2.35)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +11.1 points +9.2 points
Home likelihood 61.5% 59.5%
Bet on home team $0.03 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

West Coast Eagles ($1.29) vs Western Bulldogs ($3.90)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +22.5 points +11.0 points
Home likelihood 73.6% 61.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.01 $0.18

Carlton ($3.23) vs Melbourne ($1.39)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -2.8 points -3.2 points
Home likelihood 46.7% 46.5%
Bet on home team $0.23 $0.23
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Round 20 predictions

Sydney Swans ($1.41) vs Collingwood ($3.01)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +19.2 points +21.1 points
Home likelihood 70.0% 72.6%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.06
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Essendon ($4.50) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.23)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -19.2 points -16.4 points
Home likelihood 29.9% 31.8%
Bet on home team $0.10 $0.12
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($1.21) vs St Kilda ($4.79)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +25.7 points +28.1 points
Home likelihood 76.5% 78.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.03 $0.01

Port Adelaide ($1.31) vs GWS Giants ($3.62)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +24.5 points +30.0 points
Home likelihood 75.3% 79.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.15
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Geelong Cats ($4.40) vs Hawthorn ($1.23)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -35.2 points -32.5 points
Home likelihood 17.3% 19.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.08 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($1.80) vs Carlton ($2.07)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +11.4 points +17.4 points
Home likelihood 61.8% 68.2%
Bet on home team $0.14 $0.29
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Richmond ($1.20) vs Gold Coast Suns ($4.93)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +42.9 points +47.8 points
Home likelihood 87.8% 90.4%
Bet on home team $0.25 $0.41
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Fremantle ($1.61) vs West Coast Eagles ($2.40)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -9.5 points +7.7 points
Home likelihood 39.9% 58.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.32 $0.01

Western Bulldogs ($1.21) vs Melbourne ($4.79)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +43.5 points +36.5 points
Home likelihood 88.0% 85.0%
Bet on home team $0.30 $0.12
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Round 19 predictions

Tough loss on West Coast last week, but let’s hope we can pick it up this week with a few good wins. Here are the predictions!

Adelaide Crows ($2.11) vs Richmond ($1.77)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -4.4 points -16.1 points
Home likelihood 45.0% 32.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.26

Collingwood ($1.25) vs Carlton ($4.21)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +40.8 points +35.0 points
Home likelihood 86.7% 83.8%
Bet on home team $0.33 $0.19
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Western Bulldogs ($1.65) vs Port Adelaide ($2.32)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +12.9 points +7.2 points
Home likelihood 63.4% 57.6%
Bet on home team $0.07 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($2.40) vs Gold Coast Suns ($1.61)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -7.7 points -1.4 points
Home likelihood 41.5% 48.4%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.11
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

West Coast Eagles ($2.20) vs Hawthorn ($1.71)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +2.5 points +4.1 points
Home likelihood 52.4% 54.4%
Bet on home team $0.13 $0.16
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Geelong Cats ($2.16) vs Sydney Swans ($1.74)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +7.6 points +3.1 points
Home likelihood 58.0% 53.1%
Bet on home team $0.22 $0.13
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Melbourne ($3.81) vs North Melbourne ($1.29)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -27.0 points -19.6 points
Home likelihood 23.1% 29.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.04
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

GWS Giants ($1.28) vs Essendon ($3.84)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +23.9 points +24.4 points
Home likelihood 74.6% 75.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

St Kilda ($2.90) vs Fremantle ($1.44)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -8.1 points -4.1 points
Home likelihood 41.4% 45.6%
Bet on home team $0.10 $0.17
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00