Month: July 2015

Round 18 predictions

Another successful week last week, and we’re sitting at $3.64 profit for the year. Nothing too exciting this week, but hopefully these big bets on West Coast continue to pay off.

round17-profit

Hawthorn ($1.17) vs Richmond ($5.52)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +43.4 points +40.5 points
Home likelihood 87.9% 86.9%
Bet on home team $0.15 $0.08
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Geelong Cats ($1.13) vs Brisbane Lions ($6.43)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +55.1 points +44.5 points
Home likelihood 93.2% 89.1%
Bet on home team $0.41 $0.07
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Collingwood ($1.30) vs Melbourne ($3.68)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +28.7 points +23.0 points
Home likelihood 78.6% 74.3%
Bet on home team $0.08 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Sydney Swans ($1.43) vs Adelaide Crows ($2.96)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +12.5 points +19.1 points
Home likelihood 63.1% 70.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Carlton ($5.60) vs North Melbourne ($1.16)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -43.4 points -42.2 points
Home likelihood 12.4% 12.6%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.11 $0.10

Gold Coast Suns ($7.48) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.10)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -50.7 points -60.1 points
Home likelihood 8.6% 4.5%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.09 $0.53

Port Adelaide ($1.22) vs St Kilda ($4.54)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +16.2 points +22.8 points
Home likelihood 67.1% 74.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.14 $0.05

Fremantle ($1.22) vs GWS Giants ($4.54)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +37.8 points +32.4 points
Home likelihood 84.9% 82.0%
Bet on home team $0.17 $0.01
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Essendon ($3.05) vs Western Bulldogs ($1.41)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -16.0 points -8.5 points
Home likelihood 33.1% 40.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.11
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00
Advertisements

Round 17 predictions

Another good week last round, but as with every week. How much does the model love West Coast! Profit plot at the bottom of the predictions.

All odds from Pinnacle, except Friday night, which are taken from Sportsbet.

Carlton ($15.00) vs Hawthorn ($1.02)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -63.3 points -63.0 points
Home likelihood 4.1% 3.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Adelaide Crows ($1.22) vs Gold Coast Suns ($4.59)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +38.3 points +42.5 points
Home likelihood 85.3% 88.0%
Bet on home team $0.18 $0.33
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

GWS Giants ($1.81) vs Geelong Cats ($2.05)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +3.9 points +3.7 points
Home likelihood 54.2% 53.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Richmond ($1.74) vs Fremantle ($2.16)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +12.8 points +11.7 points
Home likelihood 63.3% 62.0%
Bet on home team $0.14 $0.11
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Essendon ($3.21) vs Port Adelaide ($1.38)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -8.5 points -14.1 points
Home likelihood 40.9% 34.3%
Bet on home team $0.14 $0.05
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($3.54) vs North Melbourne ($1.32)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -17.8 points -12.5 points
Home likelihood 31.5% 35.6%
Bet on home team $0.05 $0.10
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Western Bulldogs ($2.06) vs Collingwood ($1.81)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -2.2 points -1.5 points
Home likelihood 47.5% 48.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

West Coast Eagles ($1.41) vs Sydney Swans ($3.05)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +42.5 points +44.0 points
Home likelihood 87.6% 88.9%
Bet on home team $0.57 $0.62
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Melbourne ($1.93) vs St Kilda ($1.93)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -5.4 points -6.8 points
Home likelihood 44.1% 42.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.08 $0.12

round16-profits

Round 16 predictions

After a great round last weekend, where almost our bets got up and we turned over $1 profit, we’re now sitting comfortably at over $3 profit for the season (on a $1 pot).

The model sees a lot of value in the Saints at $3.47, GWS at $1.89 and West Coast at $1.61.

Good luck!

North Melbourne ($1.24) vs Essendon ($4.30)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +21.3 points +26.5 points
Home likelihood 72.2% 77.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.06 $0.00

Geelong Cats ($1.60) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.42)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +6.8 points +9.0 points
Home likelihood 57.2% 59.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.02 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($1.96) vs GWS Giants ($1.89)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -4.8 points -15.0 points
Home likelihood 44.6% 33.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.05 $0.30

Collingwood ($2.40) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.61)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -13.2 points -23.5 points
Home likelihood 35.8% 26.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.05 $0.31

Fremantle ($1.13) vs Carlton ($6.61)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +49.8 points +49.1 points
Home likelihood 91.2% 91.1%
Bet on home team $0.22 $0.21
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Sydney Swans ($2.52) vs Hawthorn ($1.56)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -12.9 points -15.9 points
Home likelihood 36.2% 32.4%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.10

Melbourne ($1.52) vs Brisbane Lions ($2.63)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +19.9 points +11.2 points
Home likelihood 70.6% 61.4%
Bet on home team $0.14 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.01

Port Adelaide ($1.62) vs Adelaide Crows ($2.36)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +5.1 points +10.5 points
Home likelihood 55.6% 60.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.03 $0.00

St Kilda ($3.47) vs Richmond ($1.33)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -8.7 points -0.7 points
Home likelihood 40.7% 49.2%
Bet on home team $0.17 $0.29
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Performance update

Here is the latest profit plot for this season. The return on investment (ROI) for the player model is 19.8%, and return on pot is 321%. For the team model, the ROI is 15.0%, and return on pot is 250%.

profits

Cumulative profit for the first 15 rounds of 2015. Alternating rounds are shaded by white and green.

Round 15 predictions – part 2

And here are the rest of the predictions for this round. Some big bets – we fancy Richmond, ¬†Essendon (in fact, they are favourites!), the Bulldogs and the Eagles. Let’s see how they go!

Richmond ($1.31) vs Carlton ($3.81)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +33.9 points +34.9 points
Home likelihood 82.3% 83.8%
Bet on home team $0.26 $0.32
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Essendon ($2.84) vs Melbourne ($1.48)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +6.5 points +3.7 points
Home likelihood 56.9% 53.9%
Bet on home team $0.33 $0.29
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Western Bulldogs ($1.78) vs Gold Coast Suns ($2.14)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +20.7 points +22.2 points
Home likelihood 71.6% 73.5%
Bet on home team $0.35 $0.39
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

West Coast Eagles ($1.19) vs Adelaide Crows ($5.24)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +38.2 points +48.3 points
Home likelihood 85.2% 90.6%
Bet on home team $0.08 $0.42
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($1.88) vs Geelong Cats ($2.01)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -2.2 points +0.5 points
Home likelihood 47.4% 50.6%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.06 $0.00

GWS Giants ($1.64) vs St Kilda ($2.39)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +3.8 points +4.8 points
Home likelihood 54.0% 55.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.07 $0.05

Hawthorn ($1.39) vs Fremantle ($3.22)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +24.9 points +20.3 points
Home likelihood 75.6% 71.5%
Bet on home team $0.13 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($5.54) vs Sydney Swans ($1.18)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -34.7 points -28.8 points
Home likelihood 17.5% 21.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.05
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Round 14 predictions – part 2

Here are this round’s predictions for what will be a very sad round after the terrible news about Phil Walsh. Next week I will aim to start incorporating Brownlow medal predictions using a detailed model I have built in conjunction with Champion Data. RIP Phil Walsh.

Sydney Swans ($1.45) vs Port Adelaide ($2.93)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +32.9 points +20.3 points
Home likelihood 81.8% 71.5%
Bet on home team $0.42 $0.09
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Collingwood ($3.35) vs Hawthorn ($1.35)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -19.7 points -31.5 points
Home likelihood 29.8% 19.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.23

Richmond ($1.27) vs GWS Giants ($4.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +29.6 points +35.8 points
Home likelihood 79.5% 84.5%
Bet on home team $0.03 $0.27
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($4.19) vs North Melbourne ($1.25)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -20.7 points -26.0 points
Home likelihood 28.5% 24.0%
Bet on home team $0.06 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Melbourne ($4.17) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.25)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -48.8 points -49.1 points
Home likelihood 9.6% 9.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.52 $0.55

Western Bulldogs ($1.44) vs Carlton ($2.89)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +24.5 points +26.3 points
Home likelihood 75.3% 76.8%
Bet on home team $0.20 $0.25
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Essendon ($1.77) vs St Kilda ($2.11)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +10.3 points +4.2 points
Home likelihood 60.4% 54.6%
Bet on home team $0.09 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Fremantle ($1.04) vs Brisbane Lions ($11.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +64.3 points +70.2 points
Home likelihood 95.9% 97.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.25
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00