Month: June 2015

Round 13 predictions – part 2

…and here are the full round’s predictions!

Best of luck!

Fremantle ($1.36) vs Collingwood ($3.30)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +19.6 points +25.0 points
Home likelihood 70.3% 75.7%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.08
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Sydney Swans ($1.29) vs Richmond ($3.83)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +25.8 points +19.4 points
Home likelihood 76.5% 70.5%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.05

Hawthorn ($1.07) vs Essendon ($8.50)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +46.9 points +52.3 points
Home likelihood 89.9% 92.7%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($3.69) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.30)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -23.1 points -16.0 points
Home likelihood 26.6% 32.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.07
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

St Kilda ($2.97) vs Western Bulldogs ($1.43)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -19.8 points -3.9 points
Home likelihood 29.5% 45.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.18
Bet on away team $0.01 $0.00

Carlton ($1.43) vs Gold Coast Suns ($2.93)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +18.1 points +24.5 points
Home likelihood 69.1% 75.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.18
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Round 12 predictions – part 2

And here are the rest of this round’s predictions. The player model seems to have adjusted for GWS’s big outs, but still likes them at $3.16.

Best of luck!

Richmond ($2.03) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.88)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -4.9 points -2.9 points
Home likelihood 44.6% 46.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.05 $0.00

Carlton ($3.27) vs Port Adelaide ($1.38)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -20.8 points -16.8 points
Home likelihood 28.3% 31.4%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.01
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

GWS Giants ($3.16) vs North Melbourne ($1.40)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +8.1 points +1.6 points
Home likelihood 58.4% 51.8%
Bet on home team $0.39 $0.29
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Western Bulldogs ($1.31) vs Brisbane Lions ($3.74)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +41.0 points +27.2 points
Home likelihood 86.9% 77.7%
Bet on home team $0.45 $0.06
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Geelong Cats ($1.16) vs Melbourne ($5.99)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +42.3 points +31.5 points
Home likelihood 87.6% 81.4%
Bet on home team $0.10 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.02

Round 12 predictions – part 1

As just the teams for tonight’s game have been announced, I will only run the models for tonights game until the rest of the teams are announced. Odds taken from sportsbet.com.au.

Here it is:

Adelaide Crows ($3.05) vs Hawthorn ($1.40)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -18.6 points -22.2 points
Home likelihood 30.7% 27.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.05

Round 11 predictions

Port Adelaide ($1.50) vs Geelong Cats ($2.70)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +12.2 points +12.8 points
Home likelihood 62.6% 63.4%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.01 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($9.00) vs Fremantle ($1.06)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -33.3 points -44.6 points
Home likelihood 18.4% 11.4%
Bet on home team $0.08 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

West Coast Eagles ($1.21) vs Essendon ($4.65)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +47.3 points +47.4 points
Home likelihood 90.3% 90.2%
Bet on home team $0.45 $0.44
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($2.79) vs Sydney Swans ($1.47)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -12.8 points -9.8 points
Home likelihood 36.4% 38.8%
Bet on home team $0.01 $0.05
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Collingwood ($1.65) vs GWS Giants ($2.40)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +19.6 points +8.7 points
Home likelihood 70.3% 59.0%
Bet on home team $0.24 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

St Kilda ($1.83) vs Melbourne ($2.04)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +13.9 points +16.9 points
Home likelihood 64.4% 67.8%
Bet on home team $0.21 $0.29
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Recap after 10 rounds

Round 10 is done and dusted, and so it’s time to take a look at how our models are performing for the year.

In the tipping stakes, they are matching it with the experts. The player model is currently sitting on 59 tips, and the team model is on 57 tips. For reference, the leader of The Age experts is Daniel Cherny on 60 (Bill Shorten is sitting second on 56. Tony Abbott is a little further back on 47), and the leader at the Herald Sun is on 55 (Jon Ralph and Michael Warner).

In terms of profit, we took a little hit last round, but we’re still up $1.57 on a $1 pot with the player model and $1.04 with the team model. We have wagered a total of $11.21 with the player model and $12.09 with the team model, giving returns on investment of 14.0% with the player model and 8.6% with the team model.

Below is a plot of the progress of the models over the course of the season.

The player (blue) and team (red) model. In dashed is the profit when betting on home teams, and dotted is the profit on away teams. Shaded regions indicate rounds.

The player (blue) and team (red) model. In dashed is the profit when betting on home teams, and dotted is the profit on away teams. Shaded regions indicate rounds.

So all in all, the models are performing as expected. The player model is proving to do a superior job in both predicting the winners and also betting on outcomes.

Stay tuned for round 11 predictions, which will come out shortly after teams are named tomorrow.

Round 10 predictions

We broke roughly even last week (5c profit on $1 pot) thanks to Collingwood.

Next week I will endeavour to summarize the performance of the two models so far this season. At the moment, the player model is in profit $2.06 and the team model $1.74 (both on a $1 pot).

Good luck!

Note: Pinnacle not offering head-to-head odds for the Gold Coast v Sydney game, GWS v Brisbane game or the St Kilda v Hawthorn game. Odds for those games taken from Sportsbet.com.au.

Fremantle ($1.20) vs Richmond ($4.81)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +32.7 points +32.6 points
Home likelihood 81.6% 82.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Carlton ($4.09) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.26)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -29.5 points -23.8 points
Home likelihood 21.1% 26.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.02
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($11.00) vs Sydney Swans ($1.05)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -42.7 points -54.1 points
Home likelihood 12.8% 6.7%
Bet on home team $0.04 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Port Adelaide ($1.22) vs Western Bulldogs ($4.54)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +15.0 points +25.4 points
Home likelihood 65.8% 76.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.16 $0.03

Essendon ($2.07) vs Geelong Cats ($1.80)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +3.9 points +1.3 points
Home likelihood 54.2% 51.5%
Bet on home team $0.11 $0.06
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

GWS Giants ($1.10) vs Brisbane Lions ($7.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +39.0 points +45.9 points
Home likelihood 85.7% 89.5%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($2.25) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.68)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -27.0 points -16.7 points
Home likelihood 23.3% 31.5%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.43 $0.22

St Kilda ($12.00) vs Hawthorn ($1.03)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -45.9 points -48.9 points
Home likelihood 11.0% 9.1%
Bet on home team $0.03 $0.01
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Melbourne ($3.91) vs Collingwood ($1.28)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -36.3 points -26.9 points
Home likelihood 16.5% 23.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.24 $0.00