Month: May 2015

Round 9 predictions

Odds for the Sydney – Carlton and Hawthorn – Gold Coast games were taken from sportsbet.com.au, the rest came from Pinnacle. Good luck!

Sydney Swans ($1.01) vs Carlton ($18.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +65.2 points +68.1 points
Home likelihood 96.0% 96.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Melbourne ($3.39) vs Port Adelaide ($1.34)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -21.9 points -19.3 points
Home likelihood 27.5% 29.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Hawthorn ($1.01) vs Gold Coast Suns ($18.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +76.8 points +83.0 points
Home likelihood 98.0% 98.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Western Bulldogs ($2.43) vs GWS Giants ($1.59)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -6.3 points -22.0 points
Home likelihood 43.0% 27.4%
Bet on home team $0.03 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.26

Adelaide Crows ($3.58) vs Fremantle ($1.32)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +0.1 points -19.7 points
Home likelihood 49.8% 28.9%
Bet on home team $0.30 $0.01
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Richmond ($1.77) vs Essendon ($2.11)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +3.3 points +2.7 points
Home likelihood 53.5% 52.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($1.55) vs St Kilda ($2.53)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +15.9 points +20.1 points
Home likelihood 66.8% 71.2%
Bet on home team $0.07 $0.19
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

West Coast Eagles ($1.37) vs Geelong Cats ($3.24)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +38.2 points +32.3 points
Home likelihood 85.2% 81.9%
Bet on home team $0.45 $0.33
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Collingwood ($2.16) vs North Melbourne ($1.74)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +20.6 points +13.7 points
Home likelihood 71.4% 64.4%
Bet on home team $0.47 $0.34
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00
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Round 8 predictions

After a good week last, where the player model finally overtook the team model (as expected), let’s hope for some more good results this week. Here are the predictions!

Geelong Cats ($1.23) vs Carlton ($4.40)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +28.6 points +24.3 points
Home likelihood 78.5% 74.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.03

St Kilda ($4.87) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.20)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -32.0 points -30.2 points
Home likelihood 19.2% 20.7%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

GWS Giants ($1.53) vs Adelaide Crows ($2.58)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +6.5 points +27.2 points
Home likelihood 57.0% 77.7%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.36
Bet on away team $0.07 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($3.08) vs Collingwood ($1.40)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -17.3 points -20.9 points
Home likelihood 31.9% 28.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.01

Fremantle ($1.21) vs North Melbourne ($4.71)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +33.2 points +39.9 points
Home likelihood 82.0% 86.7%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.23
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Hawthorn ($1.56) vs Sydney Swans ($2.51)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +22.0 points +21.8 points
Home likelihood 73.1% 73.0%
Bet on home team $0.25 $0.25
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Essendon ($1.24) vs Brisbane Lions ($4.30)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +35.5 points +32.3 points
Home likelihood 83.2% 82.0%
Bet on home team $0.13 $0.07
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Melbourne ($3.16) vs Western Bulldogs ($1.38)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -23.3 points -13.1 points
Home likelihood 26.3% 35.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.05
Bet on away team $0.05 $0.00

Port Adelaide ($1.27) vs Richmond ($3.96)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +9.6 points +12.3 points
Home likelihood 59.7% 62.7%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.20 $0.16

Player vs team model update

Just as an update, the player model has finally overtaken the team model in profit.

In round 7, the player model made a very tidy $1.15 profit for $1.70 wagered*, putting its total profit for the year at $1.49. The team model lost $0.12 this round, putting its yearly profit at $1.11.

*numbers are based on a $1 bank.

Round 7 predictions

After a few tough losses in round 5, we made up for it last week. Big wins on West Coast, GWS and St Kilda, and some smaller wins on Fremantle and Brisbane put us in a good spot going in to round 7.

The advantage of the player model was obvious in the GWS v Hawthorn game last week, where the team model had no bet, but the player model took into account the suspensions of Lewis and Hodge for a 14c bet on GWS.

However, the team model has outperformed the player model so far in the season due to some bigger bets on games that have come off. Current standings are that the player model is up 0.34c to the dollar, and the team model is up $1.23 to the dollar!

Essendon ($2.50) vs North Melbourne ($1.59)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +5.9 points -4.3 points
Home likelihood 56.4% 45.4%
Bet on home team $0.27 $0.09
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Adelaide Crows ($1.22) vs St Kilda ($4.74)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +45.0 points +30.9 points
Home likelihood 89.0% 80.7%
Bet on home team $0.39 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Hawthorn ($1.14) vs Melbourne ($6.47)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +59.7 points +59.2 points
Home likelihood 94.5% 94.7%
Bet on home team $0.56 $0.57
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Carlton ($2.46) vs GWS Giants ($1.61)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +0.3 points -14.0 points
Home likelihood 49.9% 34.5%
Bet on home team $0.16 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.09

West Coast Eagles ($1.13) vs Gold Coast Suns ($7.07)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +49.1 points +51.1 points
Home likelihood 91.1% 92.1%
Bet on home team $0.20 $0.30
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Sydney Swans ($1.28) vs Geelong Cats ($4.06)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +27.8 points +32.4 points
Home likelihood 78.0% 82.0%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.17
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Western Bulldogs ($3.84) vs Fremantle ($1.30)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -7.0 points -21.6 points
Home likelihood 42.1% 27.7%
Bet on home team $0.22 $0.02
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Richmond ($2.18) vs Collingwood ($1.75)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -3.7 points +9.7 points
Home likelihood 45.5% 59.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.26
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($4.67) vs Port Adelaide ($1.23)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -20.5 points -11.3 points
Home likelihood 28.6% 37.1%
Bet on home team $0.09 $0.20
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Round 6 predictions

Sorry everyone for the shocker last week! Hopefully this week will be luckier for us. Odds are from Sportsbet this week (not Pinnacle), because the Pinnacle site is not loading for me. Feel free to contact me if you can get the odds.

Collingwood ($1.66) vs Geelong Cats ($2.27)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +23.0 points +21.7 points
Home likelihood 74.0% 73.0%
Bet on home team $0.35 $0.32
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($1.50) vs Richmond ($2.60)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -4.1 points -3.6 points
Home likelihood 45.2% 46.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.27 $0.25

Western Bulldogs ($1.30) vs St Kilda ($3.50)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +29.6 points +10.5 points
Home likelihood 79.5% 60.8%
Bet on home team $0.11 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.15

GWS Giants ($4.30) vs Hawthorn ($1.22)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -32.1 points -14.1 points
Home likelihood 19.1% 34.3%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.14
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($5.50) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.22)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -6.1 points -19.2 points
Home likelihood 43.2% 29.3%
Bet on home team $0.31 $0.14
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Fremantle ($1.25) vs Essendon ($4.10)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +35.0 points +39.3 points
Home likelihood 82.8% 86.5%
Bet on home team $0.14 $0.33
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Melbourne ($5.05) vs Sydney Swans ($1.17)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -28.0 points -36.1 points
Home likelihood 22.5% 16.8%
Bet on home team $0.03 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Carlton ($1.28) vs Brisbane Lions ($3.65)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +32.6 points +17.9 points
Home likelihood 81.6% 68.9%
Bet on home team $0.16 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.05

Port Adelaide ($1.18) vs West Coast Eagles ($4.90)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +4.0 points +16.6 points
Home likelihood 54.4% 67.7%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.32 $0.15