Month: April 2015

Round 5 predictions

Just to update you on the progress of the models, the player model is currently 16% in profit for the season (27% on home teams, -11% on away teams), and the team model is an incredible 127% up for the season (77% home teams, 50% away teams). I will be very interested to see if the player model can catch up!

Here are this week’s tips. The Richmond v Geelong game and the West Coast v GWS game will really sort out the two models…

As always, odds are taken from Pinnacle sports.

Carlton ($2.46) vs Collingwood ($1.61)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -11.9 points -3.5 points
Home likelihood 37.3% 46.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.09
Bet on away team $0.01 $0.00

Richmond ($1.94) vs Geelong Cats ($1.94)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +18.9 points +23.9 points
Home likelihood 69.8% 74.7%
Bet on home team $0.38 $0.48
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Sydney Swans ($1.19) vs Western Bulldogs ($5.24)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +30.6 points +38.1 points
Home likelihood 80.2% 85.8%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.12
Bet on away team $0.01 $0.00

Gold Coast Suns ($1.79) vs Brisbane Lions ($2.12)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +19.5 points +0.5 points
Home likelihood 70.1% 50.5%
Bet on home team $0.32 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.04

West Coast Eagles ($1.59) vs GWS Giants ($2.49)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +26.8 points +9.6 points
Home likelihood 77.3% 59.8%
Bet on home team $0.39 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

North Melbourne ($3.27) vs Hawthorn ($1.38)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -22.2 points -25.8 points
Home likelihood 27.2% 24.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.02 $0.13

Melbourne ($4.79) vs Fremantle ($1.22)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -19.9 points -27.9 points
Home likelihood 29.5% 22.5%
Bet on home team $0.11 $0.02
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

St Kilda ($5.50) vs Essendon ($1.18)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -28.3 points -31.0 points
Home likelihood 22.0% 20.3%
Bet on home team $0.05 $0.03
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Adelaide Crows ($2.36) vs Port Adelaide ($1.65)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -2.0 points -1.8 points
Home likelihood 47.6% 48.0%
Bet on home team $0.09 $0.10
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00
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Round 4 Predictions

Richmond ($1.29) vs Melbourne ($3.92)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +34.7 points +32.5 points
Home likelihood 82.6% 82.1%
Bet on home team $0.23 $0.21
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

St Kilda ($3.24) vs Carlton ($1.39)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -7.2 points -12.1 points
Home likelihood 42.0% 36.2%
Bet on home team $0.16 $0.08
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Essendon ($1.45) vs Collingwood ($2.93)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +3.2 points +17.6 points
Home likelihood 53.3% 68.5%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.19 $0.00

GWS Giants ($1.47) vs Gold Coast Suns ($2.88)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +12.4 points +26.0 points
Home likelihood 63.0% 76.6%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.26
Bet on away team $0.04 $0.00

Fremantle ($1.61) vs Sydney Swans ($2.45)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +13.2 points +21.8 points
Home likelihood 63.7% 73.1%
Bet on home team $0.04 $0.29
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Port Adelaide ($2.27) vs Hawthorn ($1.70)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -5.6 points -7.3 points
Home likelihood 43.8% 41.7%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Brisbane Lions ($2.89) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.47)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -18.8 points -0.7 points
Home likelihood 30.5% 49.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.22
Bet on away team $0.04 $0.00

Geelong Cats ($2.44) vs North Melbourne ($1.61)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -3.9 points -4.8 points
Home likelihood 45.4% 44.8%
Bet on home team $0.07 $0.06
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Western Bulldogs ($4.29) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.26)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -12.1 points -19.0 points
Home likelihood 37.1% 29.4%
Bet on home team $0.18 $0.08
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Round 3 Predictions

Collingwood ($1.431) vs St. Kilda ($3.07)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +16.6 points +11.6 points
Home likelihood 67.4% 61.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.08
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Adelaide ($1.099) vs Melbourne ($8.67)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +45.0 points +46.9 points
Home likelihood 89.0% 89.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Carlton ($4.58) vs Essendon ($1.24)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -12.6 points -16.2 points
Home likelihood 36.6% 32.2%
Bet on home team $0.19 $0.13
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Sydney ($1.14) vs GWS ($6.78)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +34.4 points +20.9 points
Home likelihood 67.4% 61.9%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.03 $0.15

North Melbourne ($2.09) vs Port Adelaide ($1.833)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -0.1 points +2.5 points
Home likelihood 49.6% 52.7%
Bet on home team $0.03 $0.09
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Brisbane ($2.86) vs Richmond ($1.48)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -6.3 points -5.8 points
Home likelihood 43.0% 43.3%
Bet on home team $0.12 $0.13
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Hawthorn ($1.134) vs Bulldogs ($7.00)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +30.5 points +42.7 points
Home likelihood 80.2% 88.1%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.06 $0.00

West coast Eagles ($3.39) vs Fremantle ($1.137)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin -5.5 points -15.7 points
Home likelihood 44.0% 32.5%
Bet on home team $0.21 $0.04
Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00

Geelong ($1.153) vs Gold coast ($6.34)

Team model Player model
Predicted margin +27.6 points +29.3 points
Home likelihood 78.0% 79.2%
Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00
Bet on away team $0.07 $0.06

Round 2 Predictions

We had a solid start to the season last round, with profits in both the team model and the player model. Let’s hope for another good week to get us off to a good start!

Please excuse the change in formatting – I’m trying to find what works best in terms of clarity. Feedback welcome.

For transparency, the player models are based on the full 25 man squad for Sunday games. I will reassess when the final teams are named.

West Coast Eagles vs Carlton
Team Model
Predicted margin: 24.8
Home chance of winning: 75.6%
Bet $0.29 on West Coast Eagles at $1.52

Player Model
Predicted margin: 19.3
Home chance of winning: 70.4%
Bet $0.13 on West Coast Eagles at 1.52

Richmond vs Western Bulldogs
Team Model
Predicted margin: 15.7
Home chance of winning: 66.6%
Bet $0.06 on Western Bulldogs at $3.39

Player Model
Predicted margin: 16.5
Home chance of winning: 67.5%
Bet $0.04 on Western Bulldogs at 3.39

GWS Giants vs Melbourne
Team Model
Predicted margin: 8.8
Home chance of winning: 58.9%
Bet $0.08 on Melbourne at $2.80

Player Model
Predicted margin: 24.0
Home chance of winning: 74.7%
Bet $0.24 on GWS Giants at 1.50

Collingwood vs Adelaide Crows
Team Model
Predicted margin: -7.5
Home chance of winning: 41.6%
Bet $0.09 on Collingwood at $2.80

Player Model
Predicted margin: -13.1
Home chance of winning: 35.1%
No bet

Port Adelaide vs Sydney Swans
Team Model
Predicted margin: 12.2
Home chance of winning: 62.7%
Bet $0.09 on Port Adelaide at $1.70

Player Model
Predicted margin: 23.8
Home chance of winning: 74.6
Bet $0.38 on Port Adelaide at 1.70

Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda
Team Model
Predicted margin: 20.1
Home chance of winning: 70.9%
Bet $0.09 on St Kilda at $4.61

Player Model
Predicted margin: 21.7
Home chance of winning: 72.9%
Bet $0.07 on St Kilda at 4.61

Geelong Cats vs Fremantle
Player Model
Predicted margin: 7.5
Home chance of winning: 57.3%
Bet $0.19 on Geelong Cats at $2.11

Player Model
Predicted margin: -2.5
Home chance of winning: 47.2
No bet

Essendon vs Hawthorn
Team Model
Predicted margin: -17.0
Home chance of winning: 32.1%
Bet $0.14 on Essendon at $4.77

Player Model
Predicted margin: -20.7
Home chance of winning: 28.4%
Bet $0.09 on Essendon at 4.77

North Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions
Team Model
Predicted margin: 25.5
Home chance of winning: 76.2%
Bet $0.06 on Brisbane Lions at $5.39

Player Model
Predicted margin: 33.5
Home chance of winning: 82.9%
No bet

Full Round 1 Predictions

MATCH Team Rating Player Rating Team Model
Predicted Margin
Player Model
Predicted Margin
Team Model
Probability
Player Model
Home Probability
Odds
(Pinnacle)
Team Model
Bet
Player Model
Bet
Carlton -2.97 1576.5 -7.04 -13.5 42.1% 34.5% $2.53 $0.07 $0.00
Richmond 3.07 1606.6 +7.04 +13.5 57.9% 65.5% $1.588 $0.00 $0.02
Melbourne -16.45 1492.3 +6.54 -7.6 57.3% 41.3% $2.96 $0.33 $0.11
Gold Coast -6.82 1566.3 -6.54 +7.6 42.7% 58.7% $1.456 $0.00 $0.00
Sydney 15.0 1626.5 +21.9 +5.0 73.1% 55.1%
Essendon 1.7 1661.1 -21.9 -5.0 26.9% 44.9%
Brisbane Lions -11.61 1719.1 +7.6 +25.6 58.0% 76.3% $1.62 $0.00 $0.38
Collingwood -6.63 1471.0 -7.6 -25.6 42.0% 23.7% $2.44 $0.02 $0.00
Western Bulldogs -10.2 1582.5 +1.4 +0.4 51.2% 50.3% $2.71 $0.23 $0.21
West Coast 7.21 1554.8 -1.4 -0.4 48.8% 49.7% $1.526 $0.00 $0.00
St Kilda -18.8 1516.8 +9.0 -14.7 59.0% 33.5% $3.17 $0.40 $0.02
GWS Giants -12.4 1677.7 -9.0 +14.7 41.0% 66.5% $1.409 $0.00 $0.00
Adelaide Crows 8.35 1594.9 +13.9 -6.6 64.5% 42.7% $1.68 $0.12 $0.00
North Melbourne 4.46 1693.5 -13.9 +6.6 35.5% 57.3% $2.32 $0.00 $0.25
Fremantle 8.2 1793.3 +5.8 +13.5 56.2% 64.0% $1.81 $0.02 $0.20
Port Adelaide 13.3 1644.9 -5.8 -13.5 43.8% 26.0% $2.11 $0.00 $0.00
Hawthorn 18.9 1734.0 +18.5 +18.8 69.5% 69.9% $1.409 $0.00 $0.00
Geelong 5.57 1609.1 -18.5 -18.8 30.5% 30.1% $3.17 $0.00 $0.00

Round 1 Predictions

Welcome to the start of the 2015 predictions at AFLpredictions.

Hopefully this new model and new format is both easier to understand and more profitable! We are now including player information for our predictions, which looks to turn a much larger profit and get more tips correct than the previous team-based model. I will present both models for comparison’s sake, and (hopefully) to illustrate its superiority.

Bet sizes are based on a $1 pot, so for instance, a $0.07 bet is a 7% bet of your pot. Note that we don’t suggest betting with your full bank. Rather your pot should be around 1/5 of all the money you make available to bet with (and are willing to lose!)

Here is the first game for this week. TM stands for “Team Model” and PM stands for “Player Model”.

MATCH Team
Rating
Player
Rating
TM PRED.
MARGIN
PM Pred.
Margin
TM
PROB.
PM
PROB.
Odds
(Pinnacle)
TM
BET
PM
BET
Carlton -2.97 1576.5 -7.04 -13.5 42.1% 34.5% $2.53 $0.07  $0.00
Richmond 3.07 1606.6 +7.04 +13.5 57.9% 65.5% $1.588 $0.00 $0.02

Interestingly, conflicting bets between the two models for the first game. It will be interesting to see how the new model views the other games this round.

I will endeavour to have initial team-based model predictions out when odds are first released (normally Tuesdays), and player-based model predictions once teams are released.

Good luck!