Month: September 2014

Predictions – Grand Final

And so it has come to this. The two best teams of 2014 playing off in the Grand Final. We have Sydney rated as a slightly better team, but Hawthorn’s home ground advantage tips them over the edge for a predicted narrow victory. However, the game is essentially in the balance. This means the Hawks are good value at $2.44.

Sydney ($1.625) (47%) vs Hawthorn ($2.440) (53%)
Predicted margin: -2.4. Home ground advantage: -6.0
AWAY Bet 21.0% of pot on Hawthorn at $2.440
Line bet 18.0% of pot on Hawthorn to lose by less than 8.5 points or win at $1.95

Good luck, and thanks for following the blog this year!

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Week 3 – Finals

Sydney ($1.256) (75%) vs Kangaroos ($4.380) (25%)
Predicted margin: 25.1. Home ground advantage: 7.6
AWAY Bet 3.0% of pot on Kangaroos at $4.380
No line bet

Hawthorn ($1.381) (69%) vs Port Adelaide ($3.330) (31%)
Predicted margin: 18.7. Home ground advantage: 12.7
No bet
No line bet

Week 2 – Finals

Geelong ($1.884) (58%) vs Kangaroos ($2.020) (42%)
Predicted margin: 8.0. Home ground advantage: 6.4
Bet 10.0% of pot on Geelong at $1.884
Line bet 9.0% of pot on Geelong to win by more than 2.5 points at $1.952

Fremantle ($1.645) (59%) vs Port Adelaide ($2.400) (41%)
Predicted margin: 9.6. Home ground advantage: 14.6
No bet
No line bet

Week 1 – Finals Predictions

Hawthorn ($1.497) (73%) vs Geelong ($2.800) (27%)
Predicted margin: 23.1. Home ground advantage: 6.6
Bet 18.0% of pot on Hawthorn at $1.497
Line bet 18.0% of pot on Hawthorn to win by more than 13.5 points at $1.952

Sydney ($1.471) (71%) vs Fremantle ($2.900) (29%)
Predicted margin: 21.1. Home ground advantage: 9.5
No bet
Line bet 12.0% of pot on Sydney to win by more than 14.5 points at $1.952

Kangaroos ($1.666) (53%) vs Essendon ($2.360) (47%)
Predicted margin: 3.7. Home ground advantage: -1.1
AWAY Bet 7.0% of pot on Essendon at $2.360

Port Adelaide ($1.408) (68%) vs Richmond ($3.180) (32%)
Predicted margin: 17.3. Home ground advantage: 6.3
No bet