Month: August 2014

Round 23 Predictions

Collingwood ($10.150) (19%) vs Hawthorn ($1.077) (81%)
Predicted margin: -32.7. Home ground advantage: 5.5
Bet 10.0% of pot on Collingwood at $10.150
Line bet 31.0% of pot on Collingwood to lose by less than 48.5 points or win at $1.952

Carlton ($2.929) (41%) vs Essendon ($1.465) (59%)
Predicted margin: -8.0. Home ground advantage: 3.4
Bet 10.0% of pot on Carlton at $2.929
Line bet 18.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 17.5 points or win at $1.952

Fremantle ($1.512) (64%) vs Port Adelaide ($2.750) (36%)
Predicted margin: 14.2. Home ground advantage: 14.6
No bet
No line bet

Sydney ($1.396) (82%) vs Richmond ($3.240) (18%)
Predicted margin: 34.8. Home ground advantage: 7.4
Bet 38.0% of pot on Sydney at $1.396
Line bet 26.0% of pot on Sydney to win by more than 21.5 points at $1.952

Kangaroos ($1.074) (93%) vs Melbourne ($10.250) (7%)
Predicted margin: 53.6. Home ground advantage: 9.7
No bet
Line bet 15.0% of pot on Kangaroos to win by more than 45.5 points at $1.952

Geelong ($1.121) (86%) vs Brisbane ($7.510) (14%)
Predicted margin: 39.5. Home ground advantage: 9.6
AWAY Bet 1.0% of pot on Brisbane at $7.510
No line bet

Gold Coast ($2.929) (45%) vs West Coast ($1.465) (55%)
Predicted margin: -4.2. Home ground advantage: 11.5
Bet 16.0% of pot on Gold Coast at $2.929
Line bet 26.0% of pot on Gold Coast to lose by less than 17.5 points or win at $1.952

Adelaide ($1.050) (91%) vs St Kilda ($13.000) (9%)
Predicted margin: 51.1. Home ground advantage: 6.1
AWAY Bet 1.0% of pot on St Kilda at $13.000
No line bet

Bulldogs ($1.322) (69%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($3.730) (31%)
Predicted margin: 18.7. Home ground advantage: 13.5
AWAY Bet 6.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $3.730
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney to lose by less than 24.5 points or win at $1.952

Round 22 Predictions

Not a bad week last week with a few good line wins. And almost had a very tidy profit on Carlton! Here are this week’s predictions. Let’s hope for a few wins before the start of finals.

And look at GWS at 45% against Collingwood!

Port Adelaide ($1.476) (66%) vs Carlton ($2.880) (34%)
Predicted margin: 15.6. Home ground advantage: 6.3
No bet
No line bet

Kangaroos ($1.769) (55%) vs Adelaide ($2.179) (45%)
Predicted margin: 5.1. Home ground advantage: 5.5
No bet
No line bet

Essendon ($1.181) (75%) vs Gold Coast ($5.610) (25%)
Predicted margin: 24.9. Home ground advantage: 10.5
AWAY Bet 9.0% of pot on Gold Coast at $5.610
Line bet 10.0% of pot on Gold Coast to lose by less than 32.5 points or win at $1.952

Greater Western Sydney ($2.660) (45%) vs Collingwood ($1.540) (55%)
Predicted margin: -3.8. Home ground advantage: 7.1
Bet 12.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $2.660
Line bet 16.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney to lose by less than 12.5 points or win at $1.952

West Coast ($1.038) (92%) vs Melbourne ($16.000) (8%)
Predicted margin: 52.7. Home ground advantage: 14.8
AWAY Bet 2.0% of pot on Melbourne at $16.000
Line bet 8.0% of pot on Melbourne to lose by less than 59.5 points or win at $1.952

Hawthorn ($1.534) (64%) vs Geelong ($2.679) (36%)
Predicted margin: 14.4. Home ground advantage: 6.5
No bet
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Hawthorn to win by more than 10.5 points at $1.952

Brisbane ($4.150) (27%) vs Fremantle ($1.276) (73%)
Predicted margin: -22.1. Home ground advantage: 14.7
Bet 4.0% of pot on Brisbane at $4.150
No line bet

Bulldogs ($5.800) (19%) vs Sydney ($1.173) (81%)
Predicted margin: -32.0. Home ground advantage: 12.4
Bet 2.0% of pot on Bulldogs at $5.800
No line bet

Richmond ($1.114) (91%) vs St Kilda ($7.880) (9%)
Predicted margin: 50.5. Home ground advantage: 8.6
No bet
Line bet 13.0% of pot on Richmond to win by more than 43.5 points at $1.952

Round 21 Predictions

We’re on a roll, so let’s keep it going this round! We are deep in profit on head-to-head bets, and finally making some ground on the line bets. There are a few interesting bets this week (Carlton at 46%, Gold Coast a good chance and Hawthorn favourites in the west!)

Here are profit plots for 2014, and predictions and bets below.

h2h_profit_rd20  line_profit_rd20

Carlton ($2.730) (46%) vs Geelong ($1.518) (54%)
Predicted margin: -3.0. Home ground advantage: 6.3
Bet 15.0% of pot on Carlton at $2.730
Line bet 22.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 14.5 points or win at $1.952

Sydney ($1.020) (98%) vs St Kilda ($22.730) (2%)
Predicted margin: 75.7. Home ground advantage: 10.2
No bet
Line bet 23.0% of pot on Sydney to win by more than 63.5 points at $1.952

Gold Coast ($3.210) (41%) vs Port Adelaide ($1.403) (59%)
Predicted margin: -7.8. Home ground advantage: 11.2
Bet 14.0% of pot on Gold Coast at $3.210
Line bet 21.0% of pot on Gold Coast to lose by less than 18.5 points or win at $1.952

Essendon ($1.588) (61%) vs West Coast ($2.530) (39%)
Predicted margin: 11.7. Home ground advantage: 10.9
No bet
No line bet

Collingwood ($1.161) (83%) vs Brisbane ($6.120) (17%)
Predicted margin: 35.1. Home ground advantage: 14.7
AWAY Bet 1.0% of pot on Brisbane at $6.120
No line bet

Adelaide ($1.529) (66%) vs Richmond ($2.700) (34%)
Predicted margin: 15.7. Home ground advantage: 6.1
No bet
No line bet

Kangaroos ($1.401) (75%) vs Bulldogs ($3.220) (25%)
Predicted margin: 24.8. Home ground advantage: 2.4
No bet
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Kangaroos to win by more than 20.5 points at $1.952

Melbourne ($1.465) (68%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($2.929) (32%)
Predicted margin: 18.5. Home ground advantage: 13.2
No bet
Line bet 10.0% of pot on Melbourne to win by more than 12.5 points at $1.952

Fremantle ($1.680) (47%) vs Hawthorn ($2.330) (53%)
Predicted margin: -1.6. Home ground advantage: 14.6
AWAY Bet 17.0% of pot on Hawthorn at $2.330
Line bet 13.0% of pot on Hawthorn to lose by less than 7.5 points or win at $1.952

Round 20 Predictions

Richmond ($2.440) (50%) vs Essendon ($1.625) (50%)
Predicted margin: 0.8. Home ground advantage: 6.1
Bet 16.0% of pot on Richmond at $2.440
Line bet 20.0% of pot on Richmond to lose by less than 9.5 points or win at $1.952

Greater Western Sydney ($6.160) (26%) vs Kangaroos ($1.160) (74%)
Predicted margin: -24.6. Home ground advantage: 5.8
Bet 10.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $6.160
Line bet 27.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney to lose by less than 38.5 points or win at $1.952

Carlton ($1.526) (66%) vs Gold Coast ($2.710) (34%)
Predicted margin: 16.1. Home ground advantage: 10.0
No bet
Line bet 7.0% of pot on Carlton to win by more than 11.5 points at $1.952

Hawthorn ($1.055) (94%) vs Melbourne ($12.500) (6%)
Predicted margin: 56.2. Home ground advantage: 2.4
No bet
Line bet 7.0% of pot on Hawthorn to win by more than 51.5 points at $1.952

Port Adelaide ($2.880) (38%) vs Sydney ($1.476) (62%)
Predicted margin: -10.4. Home ground advantage: 6.1 (2.9, 1.2, 2.0)
Bet 5.0% of pot on Port Adelaide at $2.880
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Port Adelaide to lose by less than 14.5 points or win at $1.952

Geelong ($1.526) (61%) vs Fremantle ($2.710) (39%)
Predicted margin: 11.8. Home ground advantage: 11.5
No bet
No line bet

Brisbane ($2.660) (34%) vs Adelaide ($1.540) (66%)
Predicted margin: -14.3. Home ground advantage: 14.2
No bet
No line bet

St Kilda ($3.920) (29%) vs Bulldogs ($1.300) (71%)
Predicted margin: -19.5. Home ground advantage: 2.6 (2.9, -0.2, 0.0)
Bet 5.0% of pot on St Kilda at $3.920
Line bet 10.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 25.5 points or win at $1.952

West Coast ($1.900) (67%) vs Collingwood ($2.009) (33%)
Predicted margin: 16.7. Home ground advantage: 14.8 (2.9, 7.9, 4.0)
Bet 30.0% of pot on West Coast at $1.900