Month: July 2014

Round 19

A nice bet on Hawthorn to beat Sydney on the weekend established our upturn in profits in the last few weeks:

h2h_profit_rd18b

There are some curly bets this week. We haven’t adjusted as quickly to St Kilda’s impressive form as the bookmakers, so have a big bet on Gold Coast this week. Can Gold Coast win without Gary? We also have the Kangaroos as favourites (58%) against Geelong, and Collingwood (52%) against Port… 

Also worth noting is that Adelaide now has the third highest ranking in our model, behind Hawthorn and Sydney!

 

Fremantle ($1.174) (79%) vs Carlton ($5.000) (21%)
Predicted margin: 30.2. Home ground advantage: 14.3
AWAY Bet 2.0% of pot on Carlton at $5.000
No line bet

Sydney ($1.274) (80%) vs Essendon ($4.180) (20%)
Predicted margin: 31.9. Home ground advantage: 10.1
No bet
Line bet 9.0% of pot on Sydney to win by more than 26.5 points at $1.952

Adelaide ($1.215) (74%) vs West Coast ($4.970) (26%)
Predicted margin: 24.2. Home ground advantage: 8.0
AWAY Bet 8.0% of pot on West Coast at $4.970
Line bet 7.0% of pot on West Coast to lose by less than 30.5 points or win at $1.952

Richmond ($1.098) (88%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($8.700) (12%)
Predicted margin: 43.6. Home ground advantage: 12.7
AWAY Bet 1.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $8.700
No line bet

Gold Coast ($1.380) (82%) vs St Kilda ($3.330) (18%)
Predicted margin: 34.9. Home ground advantage: 8.8
Bet 36.0% of pot on Gold Coast at $1.380
Line bet 30.0% of pot on Gold Coast to win by more than 19.5 points at $1.952

Kangaroos ($2.350) (58%) vs Geelong ($1.671) (42%)
Predicted margin: 8.9. Home ground advantage: 8.8
Bet 28.0% of pot on Kangaroos at $2.350
Line bet 33.0% of pot on Kangaroos to lose by less than 7.5 points or win at $1.952

Melbourne ($1.741) (52%) vs Brisbane ($2.220) (48%)
Predicted margin: 3.1. Home ground advantage: 4.4
AWAY Bet 5.0% of pot on Brisbane at $2.220
No line bet

Hawthorn ($1.136) (89%) vs Bulldogs ($6.940) (11%)
Predicted margin: 44.9. Home ground advantage: 5.5
No bet
Line bet 16.0% of pot on Hawthorn to win by more than 36.5 points at $1.952

Collingwood ($2.220) (52%) vs Port Adelaide ($1.741) (48%)
Predicted margin: 2.8. Home ground advantage: 14.9
Bet 13.0% of pot on Collingwood at $2.220
Line bet 18.0% of pot on Collingwood to lose by less than 6.5 points or win at $1.952

Round 18 – Part 2

A solid return from the first half of round 18, with wins from Carlton and St. Kilda (!) puts us in a nice position at this point of the year. Just one bet this week, so let’s hope the Hawks can knock Sydney off at the MCG.

West Coast ($1.556) (63%) vs Richmond ($2.620) (37%)
Predicted margin: 12.9. Home ground advantage: 14.4
No bet
No line bet

Brisbane ($2.800) (36%) vs Gold Coast ($1.498) (64%)
Predicted margin: -12.7. Home ground advantage: 11.8
No bet
No line bet

Hawthorn ($2.150) (59%) vs Sydney ($1.787) (41%)
Predicted margin: 9.3. Home ground advantage: 11.1
Bet 23.0% of pot on Hawthorn at $2.150
Line bet 27.0% of pot on Hawthorn to lose by less than 4.5 points or win at $1.952

Collingwood ($1.833) (53%) vs Adelaide ($2.090) (47%)
Predicted margin: 3.5. Home ground advantage: 14.1
No bet
No line bet

Round 18

Carlton ($4.220) (31%) vs Kangaroos ($1.270) (69%)
Predicted margin: -17.1. Home ground advantage: 0.4
Bet 10.0% of pot on Carlton at $4.220
Line bet 20.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 27.5 points or win at $1.952

St Kilda ($16.000) (7%) vs Fremantle ($1.038) (93%)
Predicted margin: -53.1. Home ground advantage: 13.0
Bet 1.0% of pot on St Kilda at $16.000
Line bet 9.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 58.5 points or win at $1.952

Greater Western Sydney ($8.040) (14%) vs Geelong ($1.111) (86%)
Predicted margin: -32.3. Home ground advantage: 7.0
Bet 7.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $8.040
Line bet 16.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney to lose by less than 40.5 points or win at $1.952

Port Adelaide ($1.105) (90%) vs Melbourne ($8.360) (10%)
Predicted margin: 48.2. Home ground advantage: 5.8
No bet
Line bet 12.0% of pot on Port Adelaide to win by more than 41.5 points at $1.952

Bulldogs ($3.180) (33%) vs Essendon ($1.408) (67%)
Predicted margin: -15.4. Home ground advantage: 5.2
Bet 3.0% of pot on Bulldogs at $3.180
No line bet

Round 17

And we’ve had our first reasonable win for a little while, with the Kangaroos getting up over Hawthorn. We are now about 105% of our pot in profit on home teams (12% return on investment). This year has also seen good profits on away teams (thanks to St Kilda beating Essendon and Bulldogs beating Collingwood in “away” games, both at Etihad), and we’re about 172% up on all teams (14% return on investment).

It’s still been a so-so year for line betting, but we have a small profit on all teams.

h2h_profit_rd16line_profit_rd16

Round 17 Predictions

The only major bets this week are on Gold Coast, where we have not taken into account Gary Ablett’s absence, which has obviously affected the prices.

Adelaide ($2.200) (40%) vs Hawthorn ($1.752) (60%)
Predicted margin: -8.9. Home ground advantage: 5.7 (2.9, 0.8, 2.0)
AWAY Bet 8.0% of pot on Hawthorn at $1.752
No line bet

Melbourne ($7.040) (26%) vs Geelong ($1.133) (74%)
Predicted margin: -22.8. Home ground advantage: 6.9
Bet 14.0% of pot on Melbourne at $7.040
Line bet 24.0% of pot on Melbourne to lose by less than 35.5 points or win at $1.952

Kangaroos ($1.040) (94%) vs St Kilda ($15.000) (6%)
Predicted margin: 58.4. Home ground advantage: 3.4 (2.9, 0.5, 0.0)
No bet
No line bet

Bulldogs ($2.380) (31%) vs Gold Coast ($1.654) (69%)
Predicted margin: -17.4. Home ground advantage: 0.5 (2.9, -0.4, -2.0)
AWAY Bet 21.0% of pot on Gold Coast at $1.654
Line bet 13.0% of pot on Gold Coast to win by more than 8.5 points at $1.952

Brisbane ($2.730) (35%) vs West Coast ($1.518) (65%)
Predicted margin: -13.3. Home ground advantage: 14.0
No bet
No line bet

Sydney ($1.148) (86%) vs Carlton ($6.520) (14%)
Predicted margin: 39.7. Home ground advantage: 10.0
No bet
No line bet

Richmond ($2.530) (34%) vs Port Adelaide ($1.588) (66%)
Predicted margin: -14.5. Home ground advantage: 5.5
No bet
No line bet

Essendon ($2.600) (40%) vs Collingwood ($1.562) (60%)
Predicted margin: -8.6. Home ground advantage: -2.8
No bet
No line bet

Fremantle ($1.025) (96%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($20.000) (4%)
Predicted margin: 64.5. Home ground advantage: 14.8
No bet
No line bet

Round 16 Predictions

A handy little round last week consolidates our positive performance in head-to-head betting! We’re sitting on a total return of ~65% of pot on home team betting, and surprisingly about double that for all bets this year! This was due to some big “away” wins, but were actually St Kilda “away” at Etihad, and Melbourne “away” at the MCG, so I might need to look a little more closely on whether it’s best to bet on these teams. Line bets have broken about even for the year…

Round 16 predictions are below.

 

line_profit_rd15h2h_profits_rd15

 

Round 16!

Kangaroos ($3.930) (37%) vs Hawthorn ($1.299) (63%)
Predicted margin: -11.4. Home ground advantage: 9.2
Bet 16.0% of pot on Kangaroos at $3.930
Line bet 25.0% of pot on Kangaroos to lose by less than 24.5 points or win at $1.952

Richmond ($1.165) (86%) vs Brisbane ($6.020) (14%)
Predicted margin: 40.2. Home ground advantage: 11.8
No bet
No line bet

Greater Western Sydney ($3.760) (23%) vs Adelaide ($1.318) (77%)
Predicted margin: -26.8. Home ground advantage: 6.8
No bet
No line bet

Gold Coast ($2.110) (52%) vs Collingwood ($1.813) (48%)
Predicted margin: 2.1. Home ground advantage: 8.9
Bet 8.0% of pot on Gold Coast at $2.110
Line bet 14.0% of pot on Gold Coast to lose by less than 5.5 points or win at $1.952

Melbourne ($7.110) (15%) vs Fremantle ($1.132) (85%)
Predicted margin: -39.3. Home ground advantage: 1.5
No bet
No line bet

Port Adelaide ($1.274) (77%) vs Essendon ($4.180) (23%)
Predicted margin: 27.8. Home ground advantage: 6.0
No bet
No line bet

Carlton ($1.190) (80%) vs St Kilda ($5.420) (20%)
Predicted margin: 31.4. Home ground advantage: 0.2
AWAY Bet 2.0% of pot on St Kilda at $5.420
No line bet

West Coast ($3.740) (40%) vs Sydney ($1.322) (60%)
Predicted margin: -8.6. Home ground advantage: 14.4 (2.9, 7.5, 4.0)
Bet 18.0% of pot on West Coast at $3.740
Line bet 25.0% of pot on West Coast to lose by less than 21.5 points or win at $1.952

Geelong ($1.118) (82%) vs Bulldogs ($7.710) (18%)
Predicted margin: 34.3. Home ground advantage: 7.5
AWAY Bet 6.0% of pot on Bulldogs at $7.710
No line bet