Month: June 2014

Round 15 Predictions

Geelong ($1.364) (57%) vs Essendon ($3.440) (43%)
Predicted margin: 8.0. Home ground advantage: -1.0
AWAY Bet 19.0% of pot on Essendon at $3.440

Hawthorn ($1.213) (81%) vs Gold Coast ($5.000) (19%)
Predicted margin: 32.6. Home ground advantage: 7.4
No bet
No line bet

St Kilda ($5.230) (23%) vs Richmond ($1.200) (77%)
Predicted margin: -27.3. Home ground advantage: 8.9
Bet 5.0% of pot on St Kilda at $5.230
Line bet 21.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 38.5 points or win at $1.952

Fremantle ($1.286) (73%) vs West Coast ($4.050) (27%)
Predicted margin: 23.6. Home ground advantage: 2.9
AWAY Bet 3.0% of pot on West Coast at $4.050
No line bet

Sydney ($1.121) (95%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($7.550) (5%)
Predicted margin: 59.8. Home ground advantage: 8.1
Bet 50.0% of pot on Sydney at $1.121
Line bet 18.0% of pot on Sydney to win by more than 50.5 points at $1.952

Brisbane ($5.610) (20%) vs Kangaroos ($1.182) (80%)
Predicted margin: -31.3. Home ground advantage: 12.1
Bet 2.0% of pot on Brisbane at $5.610
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Brisbane to lose by less than 35.5 points or win at $1.952

Bulldogs ($1.699) (64%) vs Melbourne ($2.290) (36%)
Predicted margin: 13.9. Home ground advantage: 9.9
Bet 12.0% of pot on Bulldogs at $1.699
Line bet 16.0% of pot on Bulldogs to win by more than 5.5 points at $1.952

Adelaide ($3.220) (33%) vs Port Adelaide ($1.400) (67%)
Predicted margin: -15.9. Home ground advantage: 2.8
Bet 2.0% of pot on Adelaide at $3.220
No line bet

Collingwood ($1.266) (75%) vs Carlton ($4.260) (25%)
Predicted margin: 25.1. Home ground advantage: 7.8
AWAY Bet 2.0% of pot on Carlton at $4.260
No line bet

Advertisements

Round 14 Predictions

Apologies for the late post this week – I’ve been in transit for the last 24 hours! Happy betting.

 

Round 14 Predictions and suggested bets

Richmond ($4.850) (31%) vs Sydney ($1.222) (69%)
Predicted margin: -17.5. Home ground advantage: 11.0
Bet 13.0% of pot on Richmond at $4.850
Line bet 23.0% of pot on Richmond to lose by less than 29.5 points or win at $1.952

Port Adelaide ($1.108) (88%) vs Bulldogs ($8.200) (12%)
Predicted margin: 43.0. Home ground advantage: 5.7
No bet
No line bet

Hawthorn ($1.405) (68%) vs Collingwood ($3.200) (32%)
Predicted margin: 17.9. Home ground advantage: 0.5
No bet
No line bet

Gold Coast ($2.660) (45%) vs Geelong ($1.541) (55%)
Predicted margin: -4.2. Home ground advantage: 8.8
Bet 12.0% of pot on Gold Coast at $2.660
Line bet 18.0% of pot on Gold Coast to lose by less than 13.5 points or win at $1.952

Fremantle ($1.050) (95%) vs Brisbane ($13.000) (5%)
Predicted margin: 63.4. Home ground advantage: 14.2
No bet
Line bet 15.0% of pot on Fremantle to win by more than 55.5 points at $1.952

Essendon ($2.200) (51%) vs Adelaide ($1.752) (49%)
Predicted margin: 1.5. Home ground advantage: 9.1
Bet 10.0% of pot on Essendon a $2.200
Line bet 10.0% of pot on Essendon to lose by less than 4.5 points or win at $1.952

Greater Western Sydney ($3.100) (35%) vs Carlton ($1.426) (65%)
Predicted margin: -14.0. Home ground advantage: 6.9
Bet 4.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at 3.100
No line bet

St Kilda ($6.200) (26%) vs West Coast ($1.159) (74%)
Predicted margin: -23.7. Home ground advantage: 12.7
Bet 12.0% of pot on St Kilda at $6.200
Line bet 31.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 39.5 points or win at $1.952

Melbourne ($3.600) (29%) vs Kangaroos ($1.339) (71%)
Predicted margin: -20.0. Home ground advantage: 10.2
No bet
No line bet

Round 13 Predictions

Hello everyone, and sorry for the lack of “insight” in the past few weeks. Unfortunately it will continue this week, other than my thought of “who is brave enough to actually bet on Richmond??”. Here’s hoping for a big win or two soon, though!

 

Round 13

Tips, chances and margins

Carlton ($5.610) (17%) vs Hawthorn ($1.182) (83%)
Predicted margin: -34.4. Home ground advantage: 0.4

Richmond ($4.440) (43%) vs Fremantle ($1.251) (57%)
Predicted margin: -5.7. Home ground advantage: 13.4

Sydney ($1.455) (67%) vs Port Adelaide ($2.970) (33%)
Predicted margin: 16.5. Home ground advantage: 9.8

West Coast ($1.658) (67%) vs Gold Coast ($2.370) (33%)
Predicted margin: 17.3. Home ground advantage: 14.3

Brisbane ($1.383) (70%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($3.480) (30%)
Predicted margin: 20.9. Home ground advantage: 12.1

Adelaide ($1.885) (44%) vs Kangaroos ($2.020) (56%)
Predicted margin: -5.1. Home ground advantage: 5.6

Geelong ($1.030) (90%) vs St Kilda ($17.500) (10%)
Predicted margin: 48.3. Home ground advantage: 7.5

Collingwood ($1.110) (77%) vs Bulldogs ($8.040) (23%)
Predicted margin: 27.5. Home ground advantage: -3.3

Essendon ($1.405) (71%) vs Melbourne ($3.200) (29%)
Predicted margin: 21.9. Home ground advantage: -0.6

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 27.0% of pot on Richmond at $4.440

Bet 18.0% of pot on West Coast at $1.658

AWAY Bet 13.0% of pot on Kangaroos at $2.020

AWAY Bet 5.0% of pot on St Kilda at $17.500

AWAY Bet 12.0% of pot on Bulldogs at $8.040

 

Line Bets

Line bet 41.0% of pot on Richmond to lose by less than 26.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 25.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 62.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 15.0% of pot on West Coast to win by more than 9.5 points at $1.952
Line bet 19.0% of pot on Bulldogs to lose by less than 39.5 points or win at $1.952

Round 12 Predictions

Round 12

Tips, chances and margins

Geelong ($1.200) (67%) vs Carlton ($5.230) (33%)
Predicted margin: 16.9. Home ground advantage: -0.4

Hawthorn ($1.222) (82%) vs West Coast ($4.850) (18%)
Predicted margin: 34.3. Home ground advantage: 9.2

Port Adelaide ($1.038) (94%) vs St Kilda ($16.000) (6%)
Predicted margin: 57.2. Home ground advantage: 5.6

Bulldogs ($1.435) (72%) vs Brisbane ($3.050) (28%)
Predicted margin: 22.3. Home ground advantage: 11.3

Greater Western Sydney ($5.980) (21%) vs Essendon ($1.167) (79%)
Predicted margin: -29.7. Home ground advantage: 6.5

Gold Coast ($4.300) (31%) vs Sydney ($1.262) (69%)
Predicted margin: -18.3. Home ground advantage: 8.7

Fremantle ($1.222) (77%) vs Adelaide ($4.850) (23%)
Predicted margin: 27.1. Home ground advantage: 14.0

Kangaroos ($1.308) (72%) vs Richmond ($3.850) (28%)
Predicted margin: 22.2. Home ground advantage: 8.8

Melbourne ($4.720) (18%) vs Collingwood ($1.230) (82%)
Predicted margin: -33.7. Home ground advantage: 0.9

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 5.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $5.980

Bet 10.0% of pot on Gold Coast at $4.300

AWAY Bet 17.0% of pot on Carlton at $5.230

AWAY Bet 3.0% of pot on Adelaide at $4.850

AWAY Bet 3.0% of pot on Richmond at $3.850

 

Line Bets

Line bet 25.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 31.5 points or win at$ 1.952
Line bet 10.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney to lose by less than 35.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 16.0% of pot on Gold Coast to lose by less than 26.5 points or win at $1.952

 

Profits to date

h2h_profit_rd11 line_profits_rd11