Month: May 2014

Round 11 Predictions

A small win on the home team last week, and a nice big line win on Hawthorn was nice. A few long shots this week (on some teams in pretty average form), so let’s hope for an underdog to get up!

 

Round 11

Tips, chances and margins

Sydney ($1.606) (60%) vs Geelong ($2.490) (40%)
Predicted margin: 10.0. Home ground advantage: 9.6

St Kilda ($10.250) (24%) vs Collingwood ($1.074) (76%)
Predicted margin: -25.5. Home ground advantage: 8.8

Melbourne ($7.550) (11%) vs Port Adelaide ($1.121) (89%)
Predicted margin: -45.5. Home ground advantage: 0.5

Brisbane ($3.100) (39%) vs Carlton ($1.426) (61%)
Predicted margin: -9.8. Home ground advantage: 11.5

Essendon ($1.694) (41%) vs Richmond ($2.300) (59%)
Predicted margin: -7.5. Home ground advantage: -0.1

Adelaide ($1.758) (58%) vs Gold Coast ($2.200) (42%)
Predicted margin: 8.3. Home ground advantage: 7.5

Bulldogs ($5.950) (32%) vs Fremantle ($1.168) (68%)
Predicted margin: -16.4. Home ground advantage: 12.9

Hawthorn ($1.020) (99%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($22.730) (1%)
Predicted margin: 86.8. Home ground advantage: 12.4

West Coast ($1.667) (60%) vs Kangaroos ($2.360) (40%)
Predicted margin: 10.1. Home ground advantage: 13.6

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 16.0% of pot on St Kilda at $10.250
Bet 9.0% of pot on Brisbane at $3.100
Bet 18.0% of pot on the Bulldogs at $5.950

AWAY Bet 27.0% of pot on Richmond at $2.300

 

Line Bets

Line bet 37.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 44.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 13.0% of pot on Port Adelaide to win by more than 36.5 points at $1.952
Line bet 9.0% of pot on Brisbane to lose by less than 15.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 26.0% of pot on Richmond to lose by less than 7.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 34.0% of pot on Bulldogs to lose by less than 33.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 30.0% of pot on Hawthorn to win by more than 71.5 points at $1.952

Round 10 Predictions

Not much to report since last round. We still haven’t had a big win in a while, so hopefully one (or more!) is just around the corner!

Round 10

Tips, chances and margins

Geelong ($1.476) (64%) vs Kangaroos ($2.880) (36%)
Predicted margin: 14.5. Home ground advantage: 7.1
Greater Western Sydney ($3.930) (25%) vs Richmond ($1.299) (75%)
Predicted margin: -24.2. Home ground advantage: 6.4
Collingwood ($1.323) (70%) vs West Coast ($3.730) (30%)
Predicted margin: 19.8. Home ground advantage: 15.9
Port Adelaide ($1.488) (39%) vs Hawthorn ($2.840) (61%)
Predicted margin: -9.9. Home ground advantage: 5.5
Gold Coast ($1.250) (69%) vs Bulldogs ($4.460) (31%)
Predicted margin: 19.5. Home ground advantage: 8.5
Carlton ($2.290) (48%) vs Adelaide ($1.699) (52%)
Predicted margin: -1.1. Home ground advantage: 8.8 (2.9, 3.9, 2.0)

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 8.0% of pot on Carlton at $2.290

AWAY Bet 5.0% of pot on West Coast at $3.730
AWAY Bet 40.0% of pot on Hawthorn at $2.840
AWAY Bet 11.0% of pot on Bulldogs at $4.460

 

Line Bets

Line bet 45.0% of pot on Hawthorn to lose by less than 14.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 8.0% of pot on Bulldogs to lose by less than 26.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 9.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 6.5 points or win at $1.952

Round 9 Predictions

I’ve been very busy lately, so not too much to add, other than a win would be nice! Brisbane and Melbourne went close last round, so let’s hope we can get a few wins this weekend!

Round 8

Tips, chances and margins

Adelaide ($2.660) (44%) vs Collingwood ($1.541) (56%)
Predicted margin: -5.0. Home ground advantage: 5.4

Essendon ($3.180) (45%) vs Sydney ($1.408) (55%)
Predicted margin: -3.5. Home ground advantage: 9.5

Richmond ($1.208) (80%) vs Melbourne ($5.080) (20%)
Predicted margin: 31.5. Home ground advantage: 2.3

Kangaroos ($1.098) (86%) vs Brisbane ($8.700) (14%)
Predicted margin: 41.0. Home ground advantage: 10.9

Fremantle ($1.885) (57%) vs Geelong ($2.020) (43%)
Predicted margin: 8.1. Home ground advantage: 13.6

St Kilda ($3.850) (40%) vs Gold Coast ($1.308) (60%)
Predicted margin: -8.9. Home ground advantage: 12.1

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 10.0% of pot on Adelaide at $2.660
Bet 20.0% of pot on Essendon at $3.180
Bet 9.0% of pot on Fremantle at $1.885
Bet 18.0% of pot on St Kilda at $3.850

AWAY Bet 2.0% of pot on Brisbane at $8.700

 

Line Bets

Line bet 16.0% of pot on Adelaide to lose by less than 13.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 27.0% of pot on Essendon to lose by less than 17.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 33.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 25.5 points or win at $1.952

 

And in other news, Melbourne are off the bottom of the ratings ladder!

Team Rating Change
1 Hawthorn 33.2 -3.3
2 Port Adelaide 17.9 +0.4
3 Geelong 16.8 -1.3
4 Sydney 11.8 +3.3
5 Fremantle 11.3 -0.4
6 Collingwood 8.6 +1.2
7 Kangaroos 3.6 -6.4
8 West Coast 2.5 +5.8
9 Richmond -1.0 +1.3
10 Essendon -1.1 -0.5
11 Adelaide -1.7 -3.6
12 Gold Coast -5.4 +6.4
13 Carlton -9.5 +2.0
14 Western Bulldogs -13.9 +0.9
15 St. Kilda -26.4 -2.0
16 Brisbane Lions -26.4 +0.5
17 Melbourne -30.2 -0.9
18 Greater Western Sydney -35.7 -5.8

Round 8 Predictions

There were a few surprises from round 7, but unfortunately none in the games we bet on. Away teams seem to be making a much better fist of it this season, with upsets being reasonably regular. Let’s hope we can get back on the winners list in the abridged round 8!

As usual, odds taken from here.

Round 8

Tips, chances and margins

Sydney ($2.960) (28%) vs Hawthorn ($1.457) (72%)
Predicted margin: -21.1. Home ground advantage: 7.0

Port Adelaide ($1.662) (63%) vs Fremantle ($2.370) (37%)
Predicted margin: 13.1. Home ground advantage: 7.4

Brisbane ($4.660) (34%) vs Essendon ($1.235) (66%)
Predicted margin: -14.6. Home ground advantage: 11.8

Melbourne ($2.950) (44%) vs Bulldogs ($1.459) (56%)
Predicted margin: -5.4. Home ground advantage: 9.1

West Coast ($1.095) (86%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($8.950) (14%)
Predicted margin: 41.0. Home ground advantage: 14.4

St Kilda ($3.350) (41%) vs Carlton ($1.377) (59%)
Predicted margin: -7.6. Home ground advantage: 5.2

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 16.0% of pot on Brisbane at $4.660
Bet 15.0% of pot on Melbourne at $2.950
Bet 16.0% of pot on St Kilda at $3.350

AWAY Bet 11.0% of pot on Hawthorn at $1.457
AWAY Bet 3.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $8.950

 

Line bets

Line bet 7.0% of pot on Hawthorn to win by more than 14.5 points at $1.952
Line bet 12.0% of pot on Port Adelaide to win by more than 6.5 points at $1.952
Line bet 23.0% of pot on Brisbane to lose by less than 26.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 21.0% of pot on Melbourne to lose by less than 16.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 12.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney to lose by less than 49.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 22.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 19.5 points or win at $1.952