Month: April 2014

Round 7 Predictions

We’ve been treading water for a few weeks now, waiting for the next big upset. We have only seen these by away teams recently (which isn’t typical!). This year is proving to be very unpredictable, with some teams oscillating rapidly between terrible and excellent form from week to week (or quarter to quarter – I’m looking at you, Essendon!). St. Kilda have proved to be unpredictable so far, as have the Kangaroos, Carlton and West Coast.

It looks like now it’s just a matter of hanging on long shots until they come up. All three of the h2h bets this week look like they are worth a punt!

And our line betting is finally starting to move into the black. Let’s hope we can keep it up this week!

As usual, bets are based on odds taken from Pinnacle’s odds. If you see some better odds or something interesting in another bookie’s prices, then please leave a comment!

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Round 7

Tips, chances and margins

Carlton ($4.010) (29%) vs Collingwood ($1.290) (71%)
Predicted margin: -19.7. Home ground advantage: -1.9

Hawthorn ($1.067) (93%) vs St Kilda ($11.250) (7%)
Predicted margin: 53.8. Home ground advantage: 8.1

Greater Western Sydney ($9.160) (12%) vs Port Adelaide ($1.091) (88%)
Predicted margin: -42.9. Home ground advantage: 5.7

Adelaide ($1.100) (86%) vs Melbourne ($8.600) (14%)
Predicted margin: 39.9. Home ground advantage: 5.1 (2.9, 0.2, 2.0)

Brisbane ($5.120) (36%) vs Sydney ($1.206) (64%)
Predicted margin: -12.9. Home ground advantage: 11.6

Essendon ($1.364) (66%) vs Bulldogs ($3.440) (34%)
Predicted margin: 16.3. Home ground advantage: 0.7

Kangaroos ($1.260) (82%) vs Gold Coast ($4.330) (18%)
Predicted margin: 34.0. Home ground advantage: 12.1

Geelong ($1.196) (70%) vs Richmond ($5.310) (30%)
Predicted margin: 20.3. Home ground advantage: -0.1

West Coast ($2.660) (38%) vs Fremantle ($1.541) (62%)
Predicted margin: -10.8. Home ground advantage: 2.9

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 6.0% of pot on Carlton at $4.010
Bet 2.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $9.160
Bet 20.0% of pot on Brisbane at $5.120

AWAY Bet 3.0% of pot on Melbourne at $8.600
AWAY Bet 14.0% of pot on Richmond at $5.310
AWAY Bet 6.0% of pot on Bulldogs at $3.440

 

Line bets

Line bet 6.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 23.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 33.0% of pot on Brisbane to lose by less than 29.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 14.0% of pot on the Kangaroos to win by more than 26.5 points at $1.952
Line bet 15.0% of pot on Richmond to lose by less than 30.5 points or win at $1.952

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Round 6 Predictions

Round 5 didn’t deliver any home team winners, but surprisingly, we had a couple of away team wins. Most notably St Kilda against the Bombers. I may have to look a little more closely at when away teams are worth betting on (for instance, St. Kilda were technically away,  but still playing at Etihad). Here are the profit graphs for this year so far:

h2h_profit_rd5line_profits_rd5

Round 6

Tips, chances and margins

Collingwood ($1.676) (64%) vs Essendon ($2.340) (36%)
Predicted margin: 14.0. Home ground advantage: 8.2

St Kilda ($1.444) (59%) vs Brisbane ($3.010) (41%)
Predicted margin: 9.9. Home ground advantage: 3.0

Fremantle ($1.333) (70%) vs Kangaroos ($3.640) (30%)
Predicted margin: 19.8. Home ground advantage: 13.4

Gold Coast ($1.222) (74%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($4.850) (26%)
Predicted margin: 24.5. Home ground advantage: 8.4

Carlton ($2.220) (52%) vs West Coast ($1.741) (48%)
Predicted margin: 2.2. Home ground advantage: 10.0

Melbourne ($8.200) (26%) vs Sydney ($1.108) (74%)
Predicted margin: -23.5. Home ground advantage: 11.1

Bulldogs ($2.270) (43%) vs Adelaide ($1.714) (57%)
Predicted margin: -5.7. Home ground advantage: 11.1

Richmond ($4.650) (28%) vs Hawthorn ($1.235) (72%)
Predicted margin: -21.1. Home ground advantage: 2.6

Port Adelaide ($2.120) (47%) vs Geelong ($1.806) (53%)
Predicted margin: -1.7. Home ground advantage: 5.3

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 10.0% of pot on Collingwood at $1.676
Bet 12.0% of pot on Carlton at $2.220
Bet 16.0% of pot on Melbourne at $8.200
Bet 8.0% of pot on Richmond at $4.650

AWAY Bet 11.0% of pot on Brisbane at $3.010
AWAY Bet 4.0% of pot on Kangaroos at $3.640
AWAY Bet 7.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $4.850

 

Line Bets

Line bet 12.0% of pot on Collingwood to win by more than 7.5 points at $1.952
Line bet 7.0% of pot on Brisbane to lose by less than 16.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 8.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney to lose by less than 31.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 15.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 5.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 35.0% of pot on Melbourne to lose by less than 41.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 18.0% of pot on Richmond to lose by less than 30.5 points or win at $1.952

Round 5 Predictions

We tread water in round 4, not making any big gains or losses. A few of our away h2h bets came up (Kangaroos and Melbourne). Of the home teams, only Fremantle got up.

Here is a look at the upcoming round.

Round 5

Tips, chances and margins (predicted winners – NOT bets – in bold)

Brisbane ($3.870) (42%) vs Richmond ($1.306) (58%)
Predicted margin: -6.5. Home ground advantage: 11.5

Collingwood ($1.885) (55%) vs Kangaroos ($2.020) (45%)
Predicted margin: 6.1. Home ground advantage: 11.6

Sydney ($2.310) (45%) vs Fremantle ($1.690) (55%)
Predicted margin: -3.4. Home ground advantage: 11.4

West Coast ($1.917) (48%) vs Port Adelaide ($1.990) (52%)
Predicted margin: -1.5. Home ground advantage: 13.6

Essendon ($1.118) (74%) vs St Kilda ($7.710) (26%)
Predicted margin: 24.2. Home ground advantage: 1.0

Adelaide ($1.207) (79%) vs Greater Western Sydney ($5.100) (21%)
Predicted margin: 30.1. Home ground advantage: 5.1

Melbourne ($3.480) (42%) vs Gold Coast ($1.357) (58%)
Predicted margin: -6.7. Home ground advantage: 12.2

Bulldogs ($1.513) (56%) vs Carlton ($2.750) (44%)
Predicted margin: 6.5. Home ground advantage: 5.6

Geelong ($2.610) (40%) vs Hawthorn ($1.559) (60%)
Predicted margin: -8.4. Home ground advantage: -0.2

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 22.0% of pot on Brisbane at $3.870
Bet 18.0% of pot on Melbourne at $3.480

AWAY Bet 15.0% of pot on St Kilda at $7.710
AWAY Bet 2.0% of pot on Greater Western Sydney at $5.100
AWAY Bet 13.0% of pot on Carlton at $2.750

 

Line Bets (all bets listed – home line bets more profitable than away bets)

Line bet 35.0% of pot on Brisbane to lose by less than 24.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 37.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 44.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 29.0% of pot on Melbourne to lose by less than 21.5 points or win at $1.952

 

Ratings Ladder

Team Rating Change
1 Hawthorn 27.5 +6.7
2 Geelong 19.3 +4.3
3 Fremantle 15.4 +2.8
4 Port Adelaide 13.6 +7.3
5 Kangaroos 9.7 +4.3
6 Collingwood 4.3 +3.3
7 Essendon 4.2 -2.8
8 Sydney 0.7 -4.3
9 Adelaide -1.3 +7.9
10 West Coast -1.5 -4.3
11 Richmond -1.5 +3.3
12 Western Bulldogs -12.3 +1.8
13 Carlton -13.3 -4.2
14 Gold Coast -13.3 -6.7
15 St. Kilda -19.0 -7.9
16 Brisbane Lions -19.5 -7.3
17 Greater Western Sydney -26.3 -1.8
18 Melbourne -32.1 +4.2

 

Round 4 Predictions

Round 3 was another good one for us, with upsets by the Bulldogs and the Kangaroos, and a strong performance from Hawthorn. Unfortunately Adelaide fell apart in the last quarter, and now sit 0-3.

Our total outlay for head-to-head betting was 74% of the pot, and returned a profit of 70% of the bankroll. That’s a 95% return on investment. Not bad for a weekend’s work!

Below is the profit graph for this season to date.

h2h_profit_rd3

Line bets also delivered for us. Mainly thanks to the Saints putting in a strong performance at Subiaco (the line of 63.5 was way too high!). Our outlay was 169% of our pot, and returned 95% of our pot for a 56% return on investment.

Below is the line betting profit graph for this season.

line_profits_rd3

I will now also list the ladder according to our rating of each team each week so you can see where your team sits. Here it is for this round!

Ratings Ladder

Team Rating Change
1 Hawthorn 20.8 +3.7
2 Geelong 15.0 +0.5
3 Fremantle 12.6 -3.7
4 Essendon 7.0 +6.3
5 Port Adelaide 6.3 +0.3
6 Kangaroos 5.4 -0.3
7 Sydney 5.0 +5.4
8 West Coast 2.8 -0.2
9 Richmond 1.7 -0.9
10 Collingwood 1.0 -0.5
9 Gold Coast -6.6 +3.9
12 Carlton -9.0 -6.3
13 Adelaide -9.2 -5.4
14 St. Kilda -11.1 +0.2
15 Brisbane Lions -12.2 -3.9
16 Western Bulldogs -14.2 +0.9
17 Greater Western Sydney -24.5 +1.4
18 Melbourne -36.4 -1.4

Round 4

Somehow, despite sitting at 2 wins and 1 loss (which was respectable against West Coast), St. Kilda still don’t go into this game as favourites, despite playing Adelaide, who are winless. And it’s at Etihad! We have capitalised on the Saint’s value every round so far, and we look to take advantage of this again.

In other games, teams traveling interstate are rarely as strong odds as the Hawks against Gold Coast, so it’s a good opportunity for us to have a cheeky little punt on the home side. Also, Fremantle are going to be depleted, and the Bombers are looking seriously sharp, but $1.80 is good value for a team like Freo playing at home…

And somehow we have Richmond as (very slight) favourites on Friday night! We’ll see about that…

Based on the odds from here, here are this round’s predictions and bets.

 

Tips, chances and margins (predicted winners – NOT bets – in bold)

Richmond ($2.440) (51%) vs Collingwood ($1.625) (49%)
Predicted margin: 1.1. Home ground advantage: 0.4

Carlton ($1.164) (77%) vs Melbourne ($6.050) (23%)
Predicted margin: 27.6. Home ground advantage: 0.3

Port Adelaide ($1.133) (75%) vs Brisbane ($7.040) (25%)
Predicted margin: 25.7. Home ground advantage: 7.2

Greater Western Sydney ($2.320) (43%) vs Bulldogs ($1.685) (57%)
Predicted margin: -5.3. Home ground advantage: 5.0

Geelong ($1.345) (73%) vs West Coast ($3.560) (27%)
Predicted margin: 23.5. Home ground advantage: 11.3

Gold Coast ($4.380) (30%) vs Hawthorn ($1.256) (70%)
Predicted margin: -19.0. Home ground advantage: 8.4

Sydney ($1.433) (58%) vs Kangaroos ($3.060) (42%)
Predicted margin: 9.0. Home ground advantage: 9.4

St Kilda ($2.260) (58%) vs Adelaide ($1.719) (42%)
Predicted margin: 8.9. Home ground advantage: 10.8

Fremantle ($1.800) (69%) vs Essendon ($2.130) (31%)
Predicted margin: 19.0. Home ground advantage: 13.4

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 16.0% of pot on Richmond at $2.440
Bet 9.0% of pot on Gold Coast at $4.380
Bet 25.0% of pot on St Kilda at $2.260
Bet 30.0% of pot on Fremantle at $1.800

There are some away bets, which we ignore because away teams don’t make us any money. They are:

AWAY Bet 8.0% of pot on Melbourne at $6.050
AWAY Bet 12.0% of pot on Brisbane at $7.040
AWAY Bet 13.0% of pot on Kangaroos at $3.060

 

Line Bets (all bets listed – home line bets more profitable than away bets)

Line bet 19.0% of pot on Richmond to lose by less than 8.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 12.0% of pot on Melbourne to lose by less than 36.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 19.0% of pot on Brisbane to lose by less than 37.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 9.0% of pot on Gold Coast to lose by less than 24.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 11.0% of pot on the Kangaroos to lose by less than 17.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 30.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 6.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 28.0% of pot on Fremantle to win by more than 4.5 points at $1.952

What’s the Use of a Ruckman?

Last night had Essendon disposing of the Blues in a pretty clinical performance at the MCG. From the scoreline, or just watching general play, you would not have thought Carlton won any area of the game. Essendon had more disposals, contested possessions and inside 50s by a long way. However, Carlton had a few more clearances than the Bombers (42-40).

As you can see in the figure below, winning clearances doesn’t correlate to winning the game. In fact, teams often win by more than 10 goals while only breaking even or losing in clearances.

clear_diff_vs_margin

 

This looks a little counter-intuitive. Looking even closer, none of the big wins (>100 points) came from games where the winning team dominated in clearances. Actually, most 100+ point beltings are delivered by teams getting less clearances than their opponents! The game last night is not an outlier at all.

What does seem strange about last night’s game, though, was that Carlton dominated the hitouts. Warnock had more hitouts than Carlisle and Daniher combined, and Carlton more than doubled Essendon’s count (58-28). But the clearance count was pretty close. What is the good of a ruckman if hitouts don’t lead to clearances?

The same thing happened on Friday, where Hawthorn easily disposed of Fremantle by 58 points. Sandilands dominated in the ruck against Hale and Ceglar, bettering their combined number of hitouts. Yet Hawthorn won the clearances 41-36. And on Saturday night, Dean Cox, Nic Naitanui and Callum Sinclair dominated Rhys Stanley and Tom Hickey in the ruck as West Coast won the hitouts 60-29, yet St. Kilda won the clearances 43-36.

GWS v Melbourne proved the exception, as GWS dominated hitouts 79-37 and clearances 61-36 (and won the game). However, the only stat Melbourne won was free kicks, and were probably saved from another humiliation by the weather.

The figure below shows number of hitouts plotted against number of clearances for the past 3 years.

hitouts_vs_clearances

 

There is nothing unusual about these numbers (except that the GWS game must be some sort of record!). It just so happens that hitouts don’t correlate at all with clearances! Sometimes teams get a lot of hitouts and a lot of clearances, but just as often teams will get just as many hitouts and very few clearances. Notice the fewest clearances of any team in the sample – 12, by Fremantle when they beat Brisbane in 2012 – came from a game where Freo had many more hitouts than average (60).

And now, as you expect, we can see that the hitout differential between teams doesn’t correlate at all with margin. Here are a few of this round’s games plotted against past data.

hitouts_vs_margin

 

So what is the purpose of a ruckman? I would hesitate to say that their role is completely meaningless. Hitouts to advantage would be an interesting statistic to investigate. It could just be that in the data available, a hitout is awarded to one ruckman or the other although most of them are largely ineffective. Really good hitouts are in there, but the signal is drowned out by most of the other hitouts.

So perhaps just having a tall player there to make it difficult enough for the opposing ruckman to get a clear and accurate hitout is enough to nullify their effect. So that David Hale, who gives up 10cm to Aaron Sandilands, could create enough of a contest that Sandilands would win the hitout, but not as easily as otherwise. Then the rest is up to Hawthorn’s superior midfield.

Another possibility is that a small advantage in the quality of rovers is much more important in winning a clearance than the quality of the hitout.

Either that, or ruckmen just don’t know what they’re doing.

 

Round 3 Predictions

Round 2 didn’t deliver too many surprises, and we broke about even thanks to St. Kilda managing to get over the top of GWS. Unfortunately a few of the teams at longer odds, Brisbane and Melbourne couldn’t get close, while Essendon probably should have held on on Friday night. We had a tough round with the line bets, so hopefully we can bounce back this round!

Here are the profits for the first two rounds of 2014.
h2h_profit

line_profits

 

As mentioned above, we had a bit of a shocker with line bets last week (Brisbane, for the second week in a row, hurt us by just a couple of points). We’ve had a fantastic start to the season with the head-to-head bets, though!

This week has a few interesting games, which always means a chance to get one up on the bookies! Odds are taken from here.

Tips, chances and margins (predicted winners – NOT bets – in bold)

Hawthorn ($1.813) (64%) vs Fremantle ($2.110) (36%)
Predicted margin: 13.9. Home ground advantage: 13.0

Bulldogs ($3.560) (39%) vs Richmond ($1.345) (61%)
Predicted margin: -9.1. Home ground advantage: 8.6

Adelaide ($2.340) (51%) vs Sydney ($1.676) (49%)
Predicted margin: 1.5. Home ground advantage: 5.0

Gold Coast ($1.676) (55%) vs Brisbane ($2.340) (45%)
Predicted margin: 6.1. Home ground advantage: 8.3

West Coast ($1.040) (77%) vs St Kilda ($15.000) (23%)
Predicted margin: 28.0. Home ground advantage: 13.6

Collingwood ($2.370) (44%) vs Geelong ($1.658) (56%)
Predicted margin: -4.7. Home ground advantage: 8.2

Greater Western Sydney ($1.344) (66%) vs Melbourne ($3.570) (34%)
Predicted margin: 15.6. Home ground advantage: 6.4

Kangaroos ($2.130) (60%) vs Port Adelaide ($1.800) (40%)
Predicted margin: 10.6. Home ground advantage: 10.9

Essendon ($1.571) (55%) vs Carlton ($2.580) (45%)
Predicted margin: 6.0. Home ground advantage: 2.4

 

Head-to-Head Bets

Bet 19.0% of pot on Hawthorn at $1.813
Bet 16.0% of pot on the Bulldogs at $3.560
Bet 14.0% of pot on Adelaide at $2.340
Bet 25.0% of pot on the Kangaroos at $2.130

 

Line Bets (all bets listed – home line bets more profitable than away bets)

Line bet 19.0% of pot on Hawthorn to win by more than 4.5 points at $1.952
Line bet 22.0% of pot on Bulldogs to lose by less than 20.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 15.0% of pot on Adelaide to lose by less than 6.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 64.0% of pot on St Kilda to lose by less than 63.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Collingwood to lose by less than 8.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 6.0% of pot on Melbourne to lose by less than 21.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 30.0% of pot on Kangaroos to lose by less than 4.5 points or win at $1.952
Line bet 7.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 12.5 points or win at $1.952