Month: September 2013

Grand Final Predictions

After another bet-less week last round, I’m happy to say we have a suggested punt for the Grand Final to finish our year!

GF Prediction:

Hawthorn (76%) 1.649 vs Fremantle (24%) 2.39   Predicted margin: 25

Suggested bets:
Bet $0.38 on Hawthorn

Despite the remarkably good historical performance of interstate teams in the Grand Final, we are backing Hawthorn in for this game. A lot of commentators are jumping on Freo, Hawthorn have an extra day’s rest, much more M.C.G. experience and don’t have to travel. So the model has them as great value at $1.649!

Tune in next week for a season review of our model’s performance.

Finals Week 3 Predictions

A quiet week last week, with no bets, is followed by another this week.

Predictions:

Hawthorn (68%) 1.435 vs Geelong (32%) 3.05 Predicted margin: 16
Fremantle (69%) 1.308 vs Sydney (31%) 3.85 Predicted margin: 18

Suggested bets:
None

Not much to say, with no suggested bets. We have a suggested away team bet of $0.06 on Sydney, but historically, our model overpredicts the away team’s chances of winning games.

Finals Week 2 Predictions

Some big upsets last week, but unfortunately we favoured they were all away teams, so we had no chance of getting any of them! (As we historically don’t post profits from away teams, so don’t bet on them). This week’s predictions are:

Predictions:

Geelong (83%) 1.241 vs Port Adelaide (17%) 4.58 Predicted margin: 35
Sydney (70%) 1.357 vs Carlton (30%) 3.48 Predicted margin: 19

Suggested bets:

And we have no bets this week!

Finals Week 1 Predictions

Predictions:

Hawthorn (72%) 1.508 vs Sydney (28%) 2.77 Predicted margin: 21
Geelong (73%) 1.36 vs Fremantle (27%) 3.46 Predicted margin: 22
Collingwood (84%) 1.262 vs Port Adelaide (16%) 4.3 Predicted margin: 36
Richmond (72%) 1.541 vs Carlton (28%) 2.66 Predicted margin: 21

Suggested Bets:

Bet $0.16 on Hawthorn
Bet $0.24 on Collingwood
Bet $0.20 on Richmond