Month: August 2013

Round 23 Predictions

Another loss last week, as North Melbourne again failed to hold on to a lead! Let’s hope to close out the home and away season with some form this week. And my personal thoughts about the Bombers chances last week (I gave them no chance) highlight how poor I am at betting without the objectivity of my model!

Predictions:

Sydney (53%) 2.58 vs Hawthorn (47%) 1.571 Predicted margin: 2
Geelong (89%) 1.05 vs Brisbane (11%) 13.0 Predicted margin: 45
Port Adelaide (56%) 1.833 vs Carlton (44%) 2.09 Predicted margin: 5
Essendon (27%) 3.4 vs Richmond (73%) 1.369 Predicted margin: -22
West Coast (62%) 1.885 vs Adelaide (38%) 2.02 Predicted margin: 11
Gold Coast (91%) 1.133 vs Greater Western Sydney (9%) 7.04 Predicted margin: 49
Collingwood (64%) 1.606 vs Kangaroos (36%) 2.49 Predicted margin: 13
Bulldogs (92%) 1.133 vs Melbourne (8%) 7.04 Predicted margin: 51

Suggested bets:

Bet $0.23 on Sydney
Bet $0.20 on West Coast

Of course a bet on Sydney, which we think should be favourites, and some value for West Coast at home with neither team having much to play for (unless Adelaide get extremely lucky). Odds not yet up for St Kilda – Fremantle with the suggestion Freo may be resting a host of players.

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Round 22 Predictions

We only had one bet of any significance last week, which unfortunately did not get up. Let’s look to finish the home and away season with some wins!

Predictions:

Collingwood (81%) 1.143 vs West Coast (19%) 6.69 Predicted margin: 32
Adelaide (97%) 1.025 vs Melbourne (3%) 20.0 Predicted margin: 68
Kangaroos (52%) 3.39 vs Hawthorn (48%) 1.37 Predicted margin: 2
Geelong (66%) 1.508 vs Sydney (34%) 2.77 Predicted margin: 15
Fremantle (87%) 1.196 vs Port Adelaide (13%) 5.31 Predicted margin: 41
Carlton (67%) 1.476 vs Essendon (33%) 2.88 Predicted margin: 16
St Kilda (59%) 1.813 vs Gold Coast (41%) 2.11 Predicted margin: 8
Greater Western Sydney (6%) 21.0 vs Richmond (94%) 1.022 Predicted margin: -56
Brisbane (69%) 1.581 vs Bulldogs (31%) 2.55 Predicted margin: 18

Incredibly, the Kangaroos are (marginal) favourites against Hawthorn! They play Etihad very well and are in some good form at the moment. They look to be fantastic value at $3.39.

Suggested bets:
Bet $0.32 on Kangaroos
Bet $0.01 on Greater Western Sydney
Bet $0.16 on Brisbane

Unsurprisingly, a very big bet on Kangaroos, which we think are great value, and a real shot to knock Hawthorn off. Brisbane are good value at $1.581 playing at home. And who knows, maybe GWS will pinch a win against Richmond? (Only a 6% chance to do so, but worth a tiny bet at $21).

On a purely un-statistical note, can anyone imagine the Bombers getting up this week? I certainly can’t – a 40% return on a Carlton bet looks all right. (Note: the algorithm does NOT suggest a bet on Carlton.)

Round 21 Predictions

Posted a little loss last week, so let’s look for a few more wins in round 21!

Predictions:

Hawthorn (60%) 1.625 vs Collingwood (40%) 2.44 Predicted margin: 9
Port Adelaide (80%) 1.235 vs Gold Coast (20%) 4.65 Predicted margin: 30
Richmond (69%) 1.385 vs Carlton (31%) 3.31 Predicted margin: 17
Essendon (30%) 2.93 vs Kangaroos (70%) 1.463 Predicted margin: -19
West Coast (45%) 2.66 vs Geelong (55%) 1.541 Predicted margin: -4
Brisbane (94%) 1.04 vs Greater Western Sydney (6%) 15.0 Predicted margin: 57
Melbourne (8%) 17.5 vs Fremantle (92%) 1.03 Predicted margin: -52
Sydney (94%) 1.03 vs St Kilda (6%) 17.5 Predicted margin: 55
Bulldogs (44%) 2.17 vs Adelaide (56%) 1.775 Predicted margin: -5

Suggested bets:

Bet $0.12 on West Coast
Bet $0.02 on Melbourne

West Coast are given a better chance than some might think due to their considerable home ground advantage. This is similar to the Adelaide – Geelong game earlier in the year (when we had Adelaide at a 45% chance…), but with West Coast at shorter odds, hence a smaller bet. Melbourne are only an 8% chance against Fremantle, but worth a tiny bet at $17.50.  The model also suggests a $0.01 bet on St Kilda, but we ignore away bets, so ignore this one.

Round 20 Predictions

Yet another successful round last weekend, with a nice 51% return on investment. Here is the updated profits graph:

Image

Note that I had to increase the range on the y-axis!
Here are the predictions and bets for this week.

Predictions:

St Kilda (20%) 14.5 vs Hawthorn (80%) 1.044 Predicted margin: -30
Richmond (85%) 1.187 vs Brisbane (15%) 5.5 Predicted margin: 38
Geelong (85%) 1.163 vs Port Adelaide (15%) 6.09 Predicted margin: 38
Carlton (78%) 1.36 vs Bulldogs (22%) 3.46 Predicted margin: 28
Gold Coast (91%) 1.16 vs Melbourne (9%) 6.16 Predicted margin: 48
Sydney (76%) 1.476 vs Collingwood (24%) 2.88 Predicted margin: 25
Essendon (64%) 1.37 vs West Coast (36%) 3.39 Predicted margin: 13
Fremantle (99%) 1.013 vs Greater Western Sydney (1%) 22.22 Predicted margin: 83
Adelaide (50%) 2.04 vs Kangaroos (50%) 1.87 Predicted margin: 0

Suggested bets:
Bet $0.14 on St Kilda
Bet $0.16 on Carlton
Bet $0.31 on Gold Coast
Bet $0.25 on Sydney

Round 19 Predictions

Round 18 was another successful one, with a handy 18% return on investment, in line with the season average. Here’s our look at this week’s games:

Head-to-head probabilities and odds

Kangaroos (49%) 3.69 vs Geelong (51%) 1.328 Predicted margin: -1
Greater Western Sydney (54%) 1.917 vs Melbourne (46%) 1.99 Predicted margin: 3
Hawthorn (74%) 1.247 vs Richmond (26%) 4.5 Predicted margin: 23
West Coast (79%) 1.465 vs Gold Coast (21%) 2.93 Predicted margin: 29
Brisbane (71%) 1.231 vs St Kilda (29%) 4.71 Predicted margin: 19
Carlton (60%) 1.833 vs Fremantle (40%) 2.09 Predicted margin: 9
Bulldogs (16%) 8.36 vs Sydney (84%) 1.105 Predicted margin: -36
Adelaide (62%) 2.06 vs Port Adelaide (38%) 1.855 Predicted margin: 11
Collingwood (59%) 1.855 vs Essendon (41%) 2.02 Predicted margin: 8

Some very interesting predictions here – Kangaroos at 49% to win against the Cats. The Kangaroos can thank their huge win last week and a reasonable home ground advantage at Etihad. Greater Western Sydney also go in as favourites for the first time this year against Melbourne. We have some big bets this week, which are:

Suggested Bets:

Bet $0.29 on the Kangaroos

Bet $0.35 on West Coast

Bet $0.12 on Carlton

Bet $0.04 on the Bulldogs

Bet $0.27 on Adelaide

Bet $0.11 on Collingwood

I have tweaked the algorithm slightly to disregard bets with low expectation-values (which often lead to small bets on short odds, c.f. Collingwood last week), and allowed teams to have a negative travel home ground advantage (which only matters if, say, Melbourne play a home game in Brisbane, as they will have travelled further than their opposition). This does not make a difference to the vast majority of games.

Note that the total bets for this week exceed the $1 pot. This is a good example of the importance of choosing your pot size – see How to Bet.