Month: July 2013

Round 18 Predictions

We had a massive round 17 (163% return on investment!) thanks to the Adelaide, Gold Coast and Richmond wins, which puts us at a total 20% return on investment for the year. And after an indifferent start to the year, we now have a total profit of $2.47 on a $1 investment. That is to say, if you had invested $1000, with a pot-bank fraction of 4 (so your bets are 250 times those listed – see How to Bet), you would currently be in profit $617.50.

Another success to note from the previous rounds were the choice of bet sizes. Note that our two biggest bets were on Gold Coast and Adelaide, as we gave them both a very reasonable chance of winning despite them being at long odds. We wanted to make the most of this discrepancy, which payed off. Note the very attractive spike at the end of our profit plot,

profit

So let’s have a look at the suggested bets this week:

Head-to-head probabilities and odds

Essendon (44%) 3.27 vs Hawthorn (56%) 1.392, predicted margin: -6
Gold Coast (40%) 2.73 vs Carlton (60%) 1.518, predicted margin: -9
Melbourne (6%) 15.0 vs Kangaroos (94%) 1.04, predicted margin: -56
Collingwood (99%) 1.013 vs GWS (1%) 22.22, predicted margin: 83
Fremantle (75%) 1.279 vs Adelaide (25%) 4.13 , predicted margin: 25
Geelong (88%) 1.069 vs St Kilda (12%) 11.25, predicted margin: 42
Port Adelaide (75%) 1.465 vs Brisbane (25%) 2.93, predicted margin: 25
Bulldogs (36%) 3.52 vs West Coast (64%) 1.351, predicted margin: -13
Sydney (79%) 1.286 vs Richmond (21%) 4.05, predicted margin: 29

(Predicted margins are presented as home team margin – i.e. a negative margin is in favour of the away team)

Suggested Bets

Bet $0.19 on Essendon

Bet $0.06 on Gold Coast

Bet $0.04 on Collingwood

Bet $0.21 on Port Adelaide

Bet $0.10 on The Bulldogs

Bet $0.03 on Sydney

Essendon have a lot more experience at Etihad than Hawthorn do, and so get an extra ~4 point advantage due to this, closing the gap between the two teams somewhat, so they look very good value at $3.27. Interestingly, Melbourne have a negative home ground advantage this week at Etihad, which does them no favours. The bet on Collingwood is basically useless as they are massive favourites (both in the odds and in the model), while the Bulldogs are an outside chance and worth a modest bet at $3.52. Port Adelaide are a stronger chance than the odds suggest so are also good value at $1.465.

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Your Team’s Top 8, Top 4 and Premiership Credentials

It’s that time of the season again where everyone is asking what chance their team is to make the finals, the top four or avoid the wooden spoon. We have developed a code to take each teams current ratings and the fixture for the rest of the year to simulate the rest of 2013. Here is how every team is shaping up at the moment,

Team Top 8 Top 4 Top Last Make GF Win GF
Hawthorn 100.0% 92.7% 47.5% 0.0% 48.1% 29.2%
Sydney 100.0% 84.7% 19.9% 0.0% 49.7% 22.2%
Geelong 100.0% 89.1% 24.7% 0.0% 35.7% 18.1%
Fremantle 99.9% 67.9% 2.2% 0.0% 11.9% 4.0%
Essendon 99.9% 50.4% 5.5% 0.0% 18.8% 8.5%
Richmond 97.5% 12.6% 0.2% 0.0% 13.4% 6.6%
Collingwood 84.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 5.0%
Carlton 52.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 4.9%
Port Adelaide 31.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.5%
West Coast 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Adelaide 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3%
North Melbourne 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4%
Brisbane 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Gold Coast 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St Kilda 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Bulldogs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Melbourne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
GWS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.1% 0.0% 0.0%

A few likely changes we have to the ladder are Essendon just falling out of the four and Fremantle sneaking in, but the Bombers have a greater shot at the Grand Final and the flag even without the double chance. We also see Carlton are still a good chance to sneak into the 8 at the expense of Port Adelaide. This could all change after this round, with some important matches being played. Specifically Gold Coast vs Carlton and Essendon vs Hawthorn.

Round 17 Predictions

Well it had to happen eventually – Round 16 was the first round for 5 weeks that was not profitable for the model. Unfortunately, underdogs don’t always win! Port Adelaide were right in the game at half time, so were looking a good bet at $4.54, West Coast were in front at 3/4 time, and I was happy to have them at $2.54 and the Bulldogs were looking the goods in the last quarter and so were fantastic value at $7.26. But, as has been the case for much of the year, the better team has found enough to get over the line. Let’s take a look at the matches for this week (favourites, not bets, in bold):

Head-to-head probabilities and odds

Kangaroos (59%) 1.87 vs Carlton (41%) 2.07
Hawthorn (95%) 1.013 vs Bulldogs (5%) 22.22
St Kilda (56%) 2.09 vs Port Adelaide (44%) 1.833
Gold Coast (36%) 5.42 vs Collingwood (64%) 1.19
Melbourne (22%) 4.73 vs Brisbane (78%) 1.23
Greater Western Sydney (5%) 22.22 vs Essendon (95%) 1.013
Richmond (58%) 2.0 vs Fremantle (42%) 1.909
West Coast (45%) 2.58 vs Sydney (55%) 1.571
Adelaide (45%) 4.5 vs Geelong (55%) 1.247

Why are the Kangaroos, St. Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast and Richmond given such a good chance?

The first thing you might notice about these odds are that we rate Adelaide and West Coast a really good chance despite the fact that they are struggling AND playing against top-4 teams, Geelong and Sydney. The reason for this is that people typically underestimate the affect of home ground advantage and interstate travel. The cross-country trip that Sydney will take gives West Coast a ~2 goal advantage. On top of this, West Coast play many more games at Subiaco each year than Sydney do, so they are more familiar with the ground. This advantage comes out to be about another goal. What’s more, the home crowd (and effect on umpiring!) gives them an advantage of another few points. So while we rate Sydney as a much better team, we expect the game will be closer than some may expect.

Similarly for the Adelaide v Geelong game. Geelong don’t have to travel as far, so the travel advantage that Adelaide have is smaller, but ground familiarity is the same advantage that West Coast have. In fact, even the Kangaroos get an advantage over Carlton due to their greater familiarity with Etihad over Carlton.

We can see from our profit plot that we historically make a big profit when betting on home teams and lose money when betting on away teams (so we only suggest bets for home teams and ignore those for away teams). This seems to be because home teams typically win more than the bookmakers expect. So hopefully Adelaide, St. Kilda, West Coast, Richmond, Kangaroos and Gold Coast can use their home ground advantage to its fullest!

We have plenty of bets this round! And here they are:

Suggested Bets

Bet $0.13 on the Kangaroos

Bet $0.16 on St. Kilda

Bet $0.22 on Gold Coast

Bet $0.01 on Melbourne

Bet $0.16 on Richmond

Bet $0.10 on West Coast

Bet $0.29 on Adelaide

We also suggest a bet of $0.000027 on GWS, but we will ignore this one!

Round 16 Predictions

We had another successful week in Round 15, so let’s look to consolidate our 10% ROI for 2013 this week with these bets. Please carefully read the Betting Strategy section and even more carefully the How to Bet section before following this method.

Head-to-head probabilities and odds

Collingwood (73%) 1.224 vs Adelaide (27%) 4.82
Port Adelaide (38%) 4.54 vs Hawthorn (62%) 1.244
Geelong (98%) 1.013 vs Melbourne (2%) 22.22
Richmond (78%) 1.26 vs Gold Coast (22%) 4.34
Carlton (67%) 1.417 vs St Kilda (33%) 3.14
Brisbane (37%) 2.67 vs Kangaroos (63%) 1.538
Sydney (99%) 1.013 vs Greater Western Sydney (1%) 22.22
West Coast (48%) 2.56 vs Fremantle (52%) 1.578
Bulldogs (17%) 7.26 vs Essendon (83%) 1.128

Suggested Bets

$0.20 on Port Adelaide

$0.16 on Sydney

$0.14 on West Coast

$0.04 on Bulldogs

The model gives West Coast a close to 50% chance against Fremantle, while Port Adelaide are a longer shot, but worth a punt at $4.54. We also have an essentially useless bet on Sydney (at $1.013) and a small bet on the Bulldogs with big potential returns.

Round 15 results and the ratings “ladder”

Round 15 was another successful one for the model, driven mainly by the big win by North Melbourne. A very reasonable 35% return on investment for the round consolidates the gains of the previous three weeks. This was despite some close losses by GWS and Adelaide (by 4 and 6 points).

profit

I will also be posting the ratings “ladder” after each round. That is, teams ranked by the rating my model gives them rather than premiership points. This week’s Ratings Ladder is below. The difference between the rating of two teams can be thought of as the predicted margin if they were to play one another. For instance, we would expect Hawthorn to beat GWS by about 80 points if they played this week (not including home ground advantage).

1 Hawthorn 24.8
2 Geelong 22.9
3 Sydney  21.4
4 Fremantle 13.2
5 Kangaroos  12.7
6 Essendon  12.6
7 Richmond   10.8
8 Collingwood  9.7
9 West Coast    7.8
10 Carlton   5.4
11 Adelaide    3.2
12 Port Adelaide -0.6
13 St Kilda   -10.2
14 Brisbane    -14.2
15 Gold Coast    -14.6
16 Bulldogs   -27.6
17 Melbourne   -45.2
18 Greater Western Sydney   -55.0

Predictions and suggested bets to come out later in the week!

Round 15 Predictions

Last week was another successful one for the model. Over 100% return on investment, with some impressive wins by Melbourne and Port Adelaide. If West Coast could have fallen over the line, it would have been even better! Let’s hope the form continues this week.

profit

So here are the predictions for this week’s matches. There are no huge discrepancies between our model and the bookmakers. The Kangaroos – Richmond game is judged to be fifty-fifty by the model, so the Kangaroos are value at $2.80. Although they are favourites, Adelaide are good value at $1.781. A few cheeky bets on GWS and Melbourne and an insignificant one on Geelong round out the round. It should be noted that we judge St. Kilda to be good value at $13.00 away versus Fremantle. But historically we don’t make any profit on away teams, so we ignore this bet.

Carlton (52%) 1.909 vs Collingwood (48%) 2.0
Greater Western Sydney (27%) 4.46 vs Bulldogs (73%) 1.25
Kangaroos (50%) 2.8 vs Richmond (50%) 1.498
Brisbane (56%) 1.546 vs Gold Coast (44%) 2.65
Adelaide (64%) 1.781 vs West Coast (36%) 2.16
Geelong (45%) 2.23 vs Hawthorn (55%) 1.735
Melbourne (6%) 17.5 vs Sydney (94%) 1.03
Fremantle (86%) 1.05 vs St Kilda (14%) 13.0
Essendon (74%) 1.308 vs Port Adelaide (26%) 3.85

Suggested bets

$0.05 on Greater Western Sydney

$0.22 on Kangaroos

$0.18 on Adelaide

$0.01 on Geelong

$0.01 on Melbourne

It should also be noted that the suggested bet sizes (which are listed as for a bank of $1) are applicable only to the listed odds. If the odds change, then so do the bet sizes. If the odds are close, the effect is small. In general – if the odds shorten on the team you are going to bet on, bet less.